“A large spike in prices remains quite possible this summer, when demand seasonally reaches its peak,” the analysts wrote.
Nonetheless, Currie and colleagues said consumers would feel an amplified pressure, as though oil had jumped by even more. The analysts said there was “an unprecedented refining shortage.”
Goldman’s team argued that a rise in Brent crude to $140 a barrel means that prices across developed economies reaching levels normally associated with $160 a barrel this summer.
The investment bank said it expects prices to stay high, even though a surge to around $140 would trigger some “demand destruction” by encouraging people to stop using as much energy.
Goldman said Brent oil prices would average $115 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2023, with WTI averaging $110.
