Larry Fink, the chief executive of Larry Fink and leader of the global asset management firm BlackRock, has warned that the world economy could face a severe downturn if oil prices rise to around $150 per barrel.

In an exclusive interview, he said that if tensions involving Iran continue and oil prices remain elevated, the global economy could experience “profound implications.” Under a worst-case scenario, he suggested that prolonged high energy prices could trigger a “stark and steep recession.”

BlackRock manages roughly $14 trillion in assets and is one of the largest investors in major companies worldwide, giving Fink a broad view of global financial conditions.

Oil prices and geopolitical risk

Fink said the ongoing instability in the Middle East is creating major uncertainty in global markets, especially regarding energy prices. He outlined two possible outcomes: If tensions ease and Iran is reintegrated into the international community, oil prices could fall back below pre-conflict levels. And if tensions persist, oil could remain above $100 and potentially approach $150 for several years, with serious consequences for global growth.

He warned that sustained high energy costs act like a “regressive tax,” disproportionately affecting lower-income households and slowing economic activity worldwide.

Industry groups such as Offshore Energies UK have argued that countries like the UK should increase domestic oil and gas production to reduce dependence on imports during periods of global instability. Fink agreed that governments should use all available energy sources pragmatically while accelerating the transition to alternatives.

He also noted that high oil prices would likely push countries faster toward solar and wind energy, but stressed that relying on a single energy source is risky.

Comparison with past financial crises

Some analysts have drawn parallels between current financial conditions and the lead-up to the 2007–2008 global financial crisis. However, Fink strongly rejected this comparison, saying there are “zero similarities” and no sign of a similar systemic banking collapse risk today. He argued that financial institutions are now more stable and better regulated.

Although some investment funds have restricted withdrawals amid market stress, he said these issues represent only a small part of the broader financial system, which remains fundamentally strong.

Artificial intelligence and the economy

Fink also addressed concerns about whether the rapid growth in artificial intelligence investment represents a financial bubble. He denied this, stating that he does not believe there is an AI bubble, though individual companies may fail.

BlackRock recently participated in a $40 billion deal to acquire Aligned Data Centres as part of its broader push into digital infrastructure.

He said global competition in AI is effectively a technological race, warning that underinvestment in the sector could allow China to gain an advantage. He added that energy costs remain a major barrier to AI expansion, particularly in Europe and the United States, where electricity is still relatively expensive compared to China’s rapidly expanding nuclear and renewable capacity.

Jobs, education, and the impact of AI

Despite concerns about inequality, Fink said artificial intelligence is expected to create large numbers of jobs, particularly in technical and manual trades such as electricians, welders, and plumbers.

He argued that many societies have overemphasized university education for decades, especially in fields like banking, law, and media, while undervaluing skilled trades. He suggested that AI-driven change could help rebalance this perception.

According to Fink, the post–World War II push for universal college education in countries like the United States went too far, and future economies will need to place greater value on vocational and technical careers.