A deepening crisis tied to the war in Iran is now threatening the global food supply on a staggering scale, with billions of meals at risk every single week and the world’s poorest nations bracing for the harshest impact.

The warning comes from one of the most powerful voices in global agriculture, and it paints a picture of rising hunger, surging prices, and a looming battle over food that could reshape economies and lives worldwide.

Shipping Chaos Sparks Food Supply Shock

Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of fertiliser giant Yara, told the BBC that escalating hostilities in the Gulf have choked off vital shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global fertiliser supplies.

The disruption is already rippling through the system.

"We're up to half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser not being produced in the world right now because of the situation we are in," Holsether said.

That shortfall carries enormous consequences.

"What does that mean for food production? I would get to up to 10 billion meals that will not be produced every week as a result of the lack of fertilisers."

Crop Yields at Risk of Collapse

Fertiliser is not optional for modern agriculture. Without it, production drops fast and hard.

Holsether warned that skipping nitrogen fertiliser could slash crop yields by as much as 50% in just one season for certain crops.

Timing makes the situation even more dangerous. Planting seasons are already underway in key regions.

In the UK, farmers are in peak planting season. Across Asia, planting is just beginning, setting the stage for a delayed but potentially devastating impact later this year.

Analysts say the true fallout may not hit food prices immediately. Instead, the shock will arrive at harvest time when yields fall short or fail entirely.

Asia Faces Delayed but Severe Fallout

Professor Paul Teng, a senior fellow in food security in Singapore, said some countries may have enough fertiliser for now, but the window is closing fast.

"But if the crisis drags on any longer, we will be seeing impact on crops such as rice in the coming months."

Rice, a staple for billions, sits at the heart of the concern.

Farmers Caught in a Perfect Storm

Even before the full impact of shortages hits, farmers are already under intense pressure.

Costs are climbing across the board, from fuel to fertiliser, while crop prices lag behind.

"They're faced with higher energy costs, diesel for a tractor is increasing, other inputs for the farmers are increasing, fertiliser cost is increasing, but yet the crop prices haven't increased to the same extent yet," Holsether said.

The imbalance is squeezing farmers’ margins and threatening future production decisions.

Fertiliser Prices Surge, Triggering Global Tension

According to the United Nations, roughly a third of the world’s fertilisers, including urea, potash, ammonia and phosphates, typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Now that flow is under strain.

Prices have already surged by 80% since the start of the US and Israel’s war on Iran, intensifying fears of a prolonged supply shock.

Warning of a Global Food Bidding War

Holsether cautioned that if the conflict continues, the world could face a dangerous new phase.

"If there's a bidding war on food and one that Europe is robust enough to handle, what we need to keep in mind in Europe is, OK, in that situation, who are we buying the food away from?"

The answer could be devastating.

"That is a situation where the most vulnerable people pay the highest price for this in developing nations where they cannot afford to follow that."

The implications stretch far beyond economics, touching on survival itself.

Holsether pointed to rising risks around food affordability, food scarcity and hunger.

Inflation Set to Hit Households

For consumers in wealthier nations like the UK, shortages may not mean empty shelves, but they will likely mean higher prices.

The Food and Drink Federation forecasts food inflation could climb to 10% by December.

The Bank of England expects prices to rise to 4.6% in September, with potential for further increases later in the year.

That means the impact will soon show up in weekly grocery bills.

Millions More at Risk of Hunger

Globally, the outlook is far more severe.

The UN World Food Programme estimates the cascading effects of the Middle East conflict could push 45 million more people into acute hunger in 2026.

Asia and the Pacific are expected to see the sharpest regional spike, with food insecurity projected to rise by 24%.

A Crisis Still Unfolding

What began as a geopolitical conflict is rapidly evolving into a global food emergency.

Supply chains are tightening. Prices are rising. And the gap between those who can afford food and those who cannot is widening at an alarming pace.

If the disruption continues, the world may soon face not just higher costs, but a full-scale food crisis measured in billions of missing meals.