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Primary 2028 is already beginning to take shape, even though the Democratic nomination contest remains over a year away.

A series of recent national polls suggests former Vice President Kamala Harris has established an early advantage over California Gov. Gavin Newsom and other potential Democratic contenders. Last year Harris was only polling 5%.

The rest of the field continues to jockey for position in what is expected to become a crowded race.

Although no major Democratic candidate has officially secured the nomination or launched a formal campaign, early polling offers a snapshot of voter sentiment.  And it highlights the politicians receiving the most attention as the party looks toward the next presidential election.

Harris Leads in Early Democratic Polling for Primary 2028

According to several recent national surveys, Harris has consistently emerged as the leading choice among prospective Democratic voters.

An Echelon Insights poll conducted July 9–13 found Harris leading Newsom by seven percentage points. A separate Quantus Insights survey conducted July 3–7 gave Harris an even larger advantage, showing her receiving 35% support—an 18-point lead over Newsom.

The recent surveys continue a trend that dates back to late May, with Harris maintaining the top position in virtually every major national poll measuring Democratic primary preferences.

The only major survey during that period that did not place Harris first came from Emerson College in late May. That poll showed former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg narrowly leading the field, while Newsom finished second and Harris placed third.

Since then, however, Harris has reclaimed the top spot, while Newsom has consistently ranked second, generally polling between 15% and 20%.

Political analysts caution that presidential polling this far ahead of an election often reflects candidate familiarity and national name recognition more than eventual voting behavior. Even so, early surveys can influence media coverage, fundraising efforts, and perceptions of candidate viability.

Newsom Building National Profile for Primary 2028

Despite trailing Harris in current polling, Newsom remains widely viewed as one of the Democratic Party's leading potential presidential contenders.

The California governor has increased his national visibility through frequent criticism of President Donald Trump and by weighing in on high-profile national policy debates.

Among Newsom's recent policy positions has been his support for a federal billionaire tax while opposing a similar proposal at the state level in California. Supporters argue the positions reflect different fiscal circumstances, while critics question whether the distinction appears politically consistent.

Republican strategist Rob Stutzman recently told CalMatters that Newsom's differing positions could raise questions among voters about authenticity.

"This whole jiu-jitsu he has to do to oppose the tax in his state and then support it federally, it doesn't sound as authentic as others might sound on the soapbox at the Iowa State Fair," Stutzman said.

Meanwhile, supporters have increasingly embraced Newsom's national ambitions, with "Gavin Newsom 2028" apparel appearing at public events across California.

Harris Signals Continued Interest in White House

Harris has repeatedly indicated she remains open to another presidential campaign after her loss in the 2024 election.

Observers have pointed to several recent political moves—including outreach to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. This move shows Harris is strengthening relationships across different factions of the Democratic Party. She understands that progressive activists are expected to play an important role during the nomination process.

Her national recognition as a former vice president continues to provide a significant advantage over many potential rivals entering the early stages of the race.

Primary 2028 Will Have a Crowded Democratic Field 

While Harris and Newsom currently dominate most early polling, numerous Democratic leaders are viewed as possible Primary 2028 contenders.

Among those frequently mentioned are:

• Former Vice President Kamala Harris
• California Gov. Gavin Newsom
• Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg
• Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)
• Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker
• Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer
• Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro
• Maryland Gov. Wes Moore
• Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear
• New York Gov. Kathy Hochul

Political strategists note that additional candidates could enter the race, and early polling often changes dramatically as campaigns officially launch, debates begin, and voters become more familiar with the candidates.

Early Polls Offer a Snapshot of Primary 2028

History has shown that early presidential polling frequently changes well before voting begins. Candidates who initially lead surveys do not always become their party's nominee, while lesser-known contenders often gain momentum once campaigns officially start.

For now, however, Harris appears to hold an early advantage as Democrats begin looking ahead to the Primary 2028 contest, with Newsom remaining her closest competitor in national surveys.

As fundraising accelerates and prospective candidates increase their public appearances over the next two years, the Democratic field is expected to evolve considerably before primary voting eventually begins.

Relevant Links

• USA Herald: USA Herald
• CalMatters: https://calmatters.org
• Echelon Insights: https://echeloninsights.com
• Emerson College Polling: https://emersoncollegepolling.com
• Quantus Insights: https://quantusinsights.com