Trump says the US has “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran’s leverage and shipping data tell a different story.

Almost six months into the conflict between the US and Iran, global oil reserves are quickly running out because ships can't move through the Strait of Hormuz, and the two countries are still fighting over who should control this important water route.

US President Donald Trump has kept saying that the strait, which is a key path for oil moving from places like Saudi Arabia and Iraq to other parts of the world, is controlled by the US.

“They don’t have control. We have total control. We own it, and at some point, maybe they’ll do something, and then they get blown away,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday. “Right now, we’re in a very good position.” And earlier on Wednesday, he said the US Navy had cleared the strait of mines.

Iran says it won't fully open the strait again until the US agrees to its demands.

Is the US Really in Control of the Strait?

Experts say the situation is much more complex than what Trump claimed about having control. Ships are worried about their safety because there have been attacks on vessels in the area, and there's always the possibility that fighting between the US and Iran could start again.

The US naval blockade of Iran is still active, preventing ships from traveling to or leaving any Iranian port, whether inside or outside the strait. This has choked Iran's money flow and blocked Iranian sea trade.

Some traffic is still moving through the Persian Gulf, going to places that are not in Iran. But that traffic is still only a small part of what it was before the war. For example, only 14 ships passed through the strait on Tuesday – which is much less than the about 120 vessels that typically went through every day before the war.

That’s largely because “few merchant shipping companies and their ships are confident that the US can ensure their safe transit of the strait,” said Carl Schuster, former director of the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center.

Those fears are hardly unfounded. The company said that at least four of its ships were hit by drones and missiles in the strait just last week. These attacks increase insurance prices, which makes shipping companies less willing to operate, even as the war continues.

Besides directly attacking, Iran can also bother ships by sending drones over them and carrying out "targeted surveillance of merchant shipping," according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) in a recent advisory.

Since the war started, there have been 54 reports of damage to ships in the strait, as well as in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, which are on either side of the strait, according to UKMTO.This organization is linked to the Royal Navy and keeps track of maritime security and shipping activity in the area.

It also mentioned that there have been three confirmed total vessel losses, and 13 close calls.

CNN military analyst and retired Air Force Col. Cedric Leighton agreed that neither side is fully in control at the moment. “What you’re really dealing with is a standoff here,” he said.

“Because of the proximity of US forces, because of the blockade, and because of Iran’s ability and willingness to at least threaten the use of mines and the use of small boats to harass vessels … neither side is really able to exercise full control over the strait.”

Who has the upper hand?

Both the United States and Iran have ways to exert pressure on each other and to gain some influence over the strait, which usually moves 20% of the world's oil and a much larger share of natural gas that some countries depend on heavily.

Iran is located directly on the strait, which gives it a big advantage because of its close position. Schuster said it also gives them a psychological and political advantage because the disrupted maritime traffic provides them with a political and strategic benefit.

The closure of the strait has disrupted global economies and energy markets, putting pressure on the US to restore safe passage. That pressure could affect November’s midterm elections and potentially benefit Iran, Schuster said.

Iran Is Betting It Can Outlast Trump

It seems Iran is willing to wait, according to a top adviser from its Revolutionary Guards who said on Tuesday that the country could “extend” the conflict until Trump is no longer in charge.

“We have to attain deterrence so that the enemy never dares to attack us, so we can live with security,” Mohammad Reza Naqdi told PBS.

Experts say the US still has a strong military and economic edge, with strict sanctions on Iranian oil and Iranian money frozen in foreign banks.

But American Power Has Limits

Leighton said that the US military forces in the area are really stretched out and have been there for a long time. So the US has to replace its military units – like sending a new carrier battle group to the area – to have more power when talking with Iran about the strait.

He also said, “the US leverage is limited by how long it can keep up.” If the US steps back or eases the blockade, it could lose negotiating power and influence over the strait, including decisions about who controls it and what rules ships must follow.

That puts Trump in a difficult situation – he could lose his advantage and have to give in if he steps back, but he's also being pushed to end the war and help lower living costs for his supporters before important votes in Congress, say the experts.