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BRASÍLIA, Brazil — Brazil's presidential election is heading to a high-stakes runoff on October 25 after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of jailed-and-house-arrested former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Sunday's first round — a result that defied most pre-election polls and could reshape the political map of the Western Hemisphere.

With roughly 97 percent of valid votes counted, Bolsonaro held about 47.45 percent to Lula's 44.66 percent, according to reporting by Newsweek and Ynet, short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a second round. CNBC reported that Bolsonaro's lead narrowed as the count progressed, underscoring how tight the final stretch is likely to be. Final certified totals may shift slightly.

A Polling Miss That Echoes 2022

Most major pollsters had Lula narrowly ahead or the race tied. Datafolha's final survey showed Lula at 45 percent to Bolsonaro's 42 percent, while AtlasIntel pointed to a virtual dead heat. Only Quaest had put Bolsonaro in front in head-to-head matchups, according to Newsweek's tally.

The miss recalls 2022, when Jair Bolsonaro outperformed surveys by a wide margin in the first round before narrowly losing the runoff to Lula. Analysts say the pattern suggests a segment of conservative voters is reluctant to tell pollsters their intentions, though turnout and late deciders also played a role.

Who Are the Candidates?

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term as president and the standard-bearer of Brazil's left. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is a senator who has cast himself as a security-first, pro-Israel, pro-Washington alternative. Among his campaign pledges, according to Ynet, are moving Brazil's embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, designating organized-crime groups as terrorist organizations, and strengthening relations with the United States. He has also promised to pardon his father, who is under house arrest after a conviction tied to efforts to overturn the 2022 election result.

Lula acknowledged the outcome and signaled he is ready for a fight. "A new campaign begins tomorrow," he said, according to reports, characterizing his rival as representing "uncertainty for the country."

Bolsonaro, for his part, has framed foreign policy as a dividing line. "Brazil must stand with Israel, with the Jewish people and with democracies fighting terrorism," he said, a sharp contrast with Lula, who has become one of Israel's most prominent international critics since the Gaza war began.

Why Security Is Driving the Vote

Newsweek reports that public safety dominated voter concerns, with perceptions of worsening crime pushing many voters to the right — even though the actual crime statistics paint a more complicated picture. Roughly 46 percent of voters told pollsters they would never back either candidate, a measure of how polarized Brazil remains.

What It Means for Americans

Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and one of the world's top suppliers of soybeans, coffee, beef, iron ore and oil. Who governs in Brasília affects food prices on American store shelves, trade flows, and the future of tariff fights that have strained relations between Washington and Brasília.

A Bolsonaro victory would add Brazil to a bloc of right-leaning governments aligned with President Donald Trump, following recent conservative wins in Honduras and Colombia, Newsweek notes. Analysts caution, however, that closeness to Washington does not automatically translate into economic or diplomatic dividends for a partner country, given the Trump administration's mixed record with allies.

For Lula, a win would mean continuity in Brazil's drive for a more independent foreign policy, including its role in the BRICS group of emerging economies and its sharp criticism of Israel's conduct in Gaza.

The Road to October 25

Over the next three weeks, expect the campaign to turn on three questions: whether third-place voters and the candidates who were eliminated lend their support to either finalist; whether Lula can mobilize the lower-turnout voters he needs in the northeast; and whether Bolsonaro can hold the security-minded middle he appears to have won.

Markets will be watching, too. Brazil's currency and stock market have historically swung on election-night surprises, and a Bolsonaro surge could prompt early volatility as investors weigh fiscal and trade implications.

The runoff will be the decisive test of whether Brazil's political pendulum swings back to the right just four years after Lula's return to power. With both campaigns already retooling for a three-week sprint, one thing is clear: the race that polls called a toss-up is now a genuine national referendum on security, the economy, and the legacy of the Bolsonaro family.

This is a developing story. USA Herald will update as final results are certified.