An ocean of untapped crude sits beneath Venezuela's soil, and Chevron just staked a bigger claim to it. The oil giant confirmed it will expand its operations in the country, following President Donald Trump's announcement of an ambitious deal to develop Venezuela's oil reserves — one that also grants the Pentagon a financial stake in the resulting profits.

Chevron's Expanded Footprint

Chevron, the only U.S. oil company maintaining a major presence in Venezuela, announced Wednesday that it has been assigned additional acreage in the Orinoco Belt, where the company already runs active operations. Chevron plans to invest more than $7 billion over the next five years, with an ambitious goal: more than doubling its current production to roughly 600,000 barrels a day.

A Century-Long Relationship

"Chevron's history in Venezuela spans more than a century, and our expanded position reflects our confidence in the country's deep resource potential," CEO Mike Wirth said in a prepared statement — a nod to Chevron's presence in the country dating back to 1923, making it the second-largest U.S. oil company with among the deepest historical ties to Venezuelan operations.

A Country Sitting on the World's Largest Reserves

Venezuela's oil potential is staggering on paper. The country holds the world's largest proven crude oil reserves, totaling more than 303 billion barrels, according to OPEC's 2025 Annual Statistical Bulletin — dwarfing even Saudi Arabia's 267 billion barrels, which sits a distant second.

A Massive Gap Between Potential and Production

Yet potential and output tell two very different stories. Venezuela's severely degraded energy infrastructure, combined with ongoing international sanctions, has left the country producing just over 1 million barrels a day — a fraction of Saudi Arabia's 10 million to 11 million barrels daily, and nowhere close to the nearly 14 million barrels the U.S. itself produces each day.

Framing the Deal as a Path to Prosperity

Energy Secretary Chris Wright spoke in Caracas Wednesday, framing the broader U.S.-Venezuela arrangement in sweeping terms. "President Trump's mission in Venezuela is straightforward. The mission is to bring peace, freedom, opportunity and prosperity to the people of Venezuela," Wright said. "I believe the deals that are signed today – tens of billions of dollars of investment, ultimately many thousands of jobs – are critical in starting this ball rolling of peace, opportunity and prosperity for everyone in Venezuela."

A New Partnership Announced

The White House confirmed Monday it is partnering with North American Blue Energy Partners, known as NABEP, as part of the broader push to develop Venezuela's oil industry under the Trump administration's direction.

Skepticism From Energy Experts

Not everyone shares the administration's optimism. Energy experts have voiced skepticism that Venezuela's oil industry — battered by years of neglect — can be meaningfully revived on any short timeline.

Legal and Political Questions Loom Large

Beyond the technical hurdles, serious questions remain about the deal's underlying legitimacy. Critics have raised doubts about whether Venezuela's acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, actually holds the authority to grant NABEP 100-year rights over 17 oil fields containing an estimated 65 billion barrels in reserves — and whether future governments, either in Venezuela or the U.S., might later move to overturn the arrangement entirely.

Ian Vásquez, vice president for international studies at the Cato Institute, argued that Venezuela's own constitution requires arrangements like this one to be approved by the National Assembly — approval that, according to Vásquez, has not occurred.

"The deal lacks legitimacy since it was agreed to with a dictatorship that has clung to power for decades through violence and by committing what was probably the largest electoral fraud in Latin American history in 2024," Vásquez wrote. "The agreement was also reached under overwhelming pressure, military and otherwise, from the United States. As such, any future Venezuelan democracy will question the deal, thus undermining confidence in the current arrangement."

Wright Pushes Back on Critics

Speaking at a joint press conference alongside Rodríguez, Wright directly addressed the mounting criticism. "This is a deal that's a massive win and benefit for the people of the United States of America and a massive win for the people of Venezuela," he said. "Because what it's going to do is take resources that are underground, not helping anyone, and invest capital and money and technology and bring them to the surface to better the lives of Venezuelans, better supply energy to Americans."

Trump's Long-Standing Interest in Venezuelan Oil

Trump's focus on Venezuela's oil sector intensified following the January capture of then-President Nicolás Maduro, after which he pushed publicly to bring U.S. businesses back into the country. "We have Exxon going in, we have Chevron going in. We have our big oil companies going in," Trump said that same month.

He reiterated Monday that other major U.S. oil companies were reportedly preparing to return to Venezuela, though beyond Chevron's confirmed expansion, no concrete evidence of other companies' involvement has yet emerged.

Exxon's Continued Caution

Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods had described Venezuela as "uninvestable" back in January, and an Exxon spokesperson said this week that "nothing has changed" — suggesting the company remains unconvinced despite the administration's broader push.

A History That Explains the Hesitation

Skepticism from companies like Exxon isn't without historical grounding. Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in 1976, creating the state-owned company Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. A second wave of nationalization followed in 2007, when President Hugo Chávez forced foreign oil companies into state-controlled joint ventures and seized the assets of any company that refused to comply. Chevron chose to accept the joint venture arrangement at the time. Others, including Exxon and ConocoPhillips, refused — and had their assets seized as a result, a history that continues to shape how cautiously U.S. oil majors approach the country today.

Gas Prices and Timeline Realities

Trump has claimed the Venezuela agreement would "substantially lower" gasoline prices in the U.S. Analysts, however, have repeatedly cautioned that Venezuela's dilapidated oil infrastructure will require years of restoration work and tens of billions of dollars in investment before it can meaningfully affect global supply.

"It could take 2 to 4 years to get new greenfield facilities online in the Orinoco region," said Amy Jaffe, director of the Global Energy, Climate, and Sustainability Lab at New York University, in an email. "Other places where there is no pipeline and other kinds of support infrastructure could take longer."

Meanwhile, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline jumped overnight to $4.12, according to the motor club AAA — a full 93 cents higher than the price at this same point last year, underscoring just how disconnected the deal's promised long-term benefits remain from consumers' immediate experience at the pump.