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A Nasa satellite to crash to Earth has prompted warnings from space officials, who say debris from the aging spacecraft could survive its fiery descent through the atmosphere.

While the spectacle may sound like the plot of a science fiction film, experts say the odds of anyone being struck remain extremely small.

Re-entry Expected Tuesday Evening

According to the United States Space Force, the spacecraft — weighing roughly 1,323 pounds (600 kilograms) — is expected to plunge back through Earth’s atmosphere at approximately 7:45 p.m. EDT on Tuesday.

The object in question is Van Allen Probe A, one of two satellites launched in 2012 to study the mysterious radiation belts surrounding Earth.

Most of the spacecraft is expected to burn up as it tears through the atmosphere at blistering speeds. However, officials say some fragments may survive the descent and reach the ground.

The Space Force estimates a 1 in 4,200 chance that someone could be injured by falling debris.

“NASA and Space Force will continue to monitor the re-entry and update predictions,” the agency said in a statement, noting that the estimated timing still carries an uncertainty window of plus or minus 24 hours.

Space Debris Falls More Often Than Many Realize

Although the idea of space junk raining down may seem alarming, experts say falling debris is not unusual.

Over the past 40 years, roughly 5,400 tons of space material are believed to have survived re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere, according to earlier reporting cited by Wired.

Even so, the vast majority of fragments never threaten people.

About 71% of Earth’s surface is covered by water, meaning most debris ends up in oceans or remote regions.

A 2011 analysis cited by Space.com estimated the chance of anyone being harmed by falling space debris at about 1 in 3,200.

For any single person, the probability is astronomically smaller.

“The odds that you will be hit are one in several trillion,” said Mark Matney, who works in the orbital debris program at NASA Johnson Space Center.

The Only Known Person Hit by Space Debris

Despite the long odds, there has been one widely recognized incident.

In January 1997, Lottie Williams was walking through a park in Tulsa, Oklahoma when she noticed a sudden flash of light overhead.

Moments later, a six-inch piece of metal struck her shoulder.

The small, scorched fragment was never formally confirmed as space junk, but NASA determined the timing and location aligned with the breakup of a Delta rocket stage that had been orbiting Earth for months.

Williams was not injured and remains the only person known to have been hit by human-made space debris.