President Donald Trump ignited fresh global anxiety after abruptly shifting from talk of a breakthrough peace agreement with Iran to warnings of renewed bombing at “a much higher level and intensity than it was before.” The dramatic reversal rattled expectations surrounding a possible end to the Gulf conflict and underscored the fragile state of negotiations that could determine the future of oil markets, sanctions, and regional security.

Just hours earlier, optimism had surged.

Trump announced he was pausing the short lived “Project Freedom” mission designed to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, claiming progress had been made toward a “Complete and Final Agreement” with Iran. The announcement briefly calmed oil markets and fueled hopes that Washington and Tehran were nearing a historic breakthrough.

But the mood changed fast.

Iran confirmed Wednesday that it was reviewing a new proposal from Washington after US media reports cited unnamed American officials saying both sides were closing in on a one page memorandum aimed at ending the war in the Gulf.

A source close to mediators in Pakistan told Reuters news agency: "We will close this very soon. We are getting close."

The apparent momentum was quickly overshadowed when Trump dramatically changed tone on Wednesday morning.

The president warned that any agreement remained uncertain, calling a deal a "big assumption." He added that if negotiations collapsed, military strikes would resume at an even more devastating scale.

The warning came less than 24 hours after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared at the White House that Operation Epic Fury, the American led military campaign against Iran, had ended.

"So We'll See What Happens"

Despite the escalating rhetoric, Trump later struck a more hopeful tone during a brief phone interview with PBS, while admitting previous negotiations with Tehran had repeatedly fallen apart.

"I felt that way before with them," he said. "So we'll see what happens."

Trump also told PBS it was "unlikely" he would dispatch US envoys for another round of peace talks in Islamabad, the Pakistani capital that has emerged as a key diplomatic hub in the crisis.

Reports from Axios and Reuters suggested Washington and Tehran were inching toward a one page, 14 point memorandum intended to halt hostilities and stabilize the region.

According to the reports, the framework would eventually pave the way for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting economic sanctions, and limiting Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

But major doubts remain inside both governments.

Axios reported that some US officials are deeply skeptical about whether any agreement could survive Iran’s fractured power structure or even gain approval from competing factions within Tehran’s leadership.

Iranian parliamentarian Ebrahim Rezaei dismissed the reported proposal on X as nothing more than a US "wish list."

He issued a stark warning of his own.

Iran, he said, "has its finger on the trigger and is ready" if Washington fails to "grant the necessary concessions."

Experts Warn Deal Could Collapse at Any Moment

Foreign policy analysts in Washington also urged caution, noting that negotiations involving Iran have repeatedly unraveled just as agreements appeared close.

"Clearly, the administration thinks a deal is possible, given the way they publicly rolled out Project Freedom only to suddenly pause it hours later," Grant Rumley, a former Middle East policy adviser to both the Biden and Trump administrations, told the BBC.

"But we have been here before, and we've seen negotiations collapse at the last minute for a variety of reasons," added Rumley, now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Trump has repeatedly claimed a breakthrough was near ever since a ceasefire was announced on April 7.

On April 17, he told CBS that Iran had "agreed to everything" and would permit the US to remove its enriched uranium. Iranian officials immediately rejected that claim.

Standing in the White House again on Wednesday, Trump insisted: "They want to make a deal, they want to negotiate."

"And we'll see whether or not they are agreeing," he added.

Even if negotiators manage to secure a short preliminary memorandum, analysts say the real battle would only be beginning.

Rumley described it as "highly unlikely" that a single page framework could resolve the massive technical disputes surrounding Iran’s nuclear program.

During the Obama administration, it took more than 20 months to finalize the details of the original nuclear agreement with Tehran.

Project Freedom Faces Questions

Meanwhile, questions are mounting over whether Project Freedom was ever capable of securing the Strait of Hormuz in the first place.

Shipping experts said the operation had only a limited impact after its launch Sunday, with very few vessels willing to pass through the volatile waterway.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group think tank, told the BBC that Iran’s aggressive response to the operation likely convinced Trump the mission would fail.

Tehran reportedly responded by firing on ships and launching attacks against targets in the UAE, escalating fears of a wider regional crisis.

"There is no real policy process in this administration," Vaez said. "The president makes decisions based on impulse more than process, therefore there are inconsistencies that happen all the time."

Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official focused on Middle East policy, said the connection between pausing Project Freedom and the emerging peace proposal remains deeply unclear.

"It's unclear if the pause in Project Freedom was because of this one page memorandum or because the 1,500 ships currently stuck behind the [Strait of Hormuz] wouldn't transit even with the US security umbrella," he said.

"Iran is likely trying to determine that as well."