3I/ATLAS Shows Energy Concentration That Challenges Longstanding Assumptions

This does not mean 3I/ATLAS is artificial. It does mean that our models, which often rely on simplifications to remain computationally manageable, are being stress-tested by real data.

And that brings us to why this matters for Earth.

In April 2029, asteroid Apophis will pass extraordinarily close to Earth—on Friday the 13th, no less—at a distance that places it well within the realm of serious planetary-defense interest. Scientists are confident, based on current measurements, that Apophis will not collide with Earth. That confidence is justified by the data we have today.

But 3I/ATLAS has demonstrated something important: behavior matters as much as trajectory.

All orbital projections assume that forces acting on an object remain within expected bounds. When objects begin to display organized, directional activity—jets, asymmetric mass loss, or concentrated energy release—those assumptions must be revisited. Even small non-gravitational forces, applied consistently over time, can alter paths in ways that only become apparent late in the timeline.