Comets and the Unpredictable Unknown
While asteroids travel in relatively stable orbits, comets present wilder cards. The interstellar visitor 3I/ATLAS has already upended assumptions about what kinds of objects can wander into our neighborhood from outside the solar system. Other comets, such as C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) and 12P/Pons-Brooks, are being tracked for their brightness and trajectories. None are expected to collide with Earth, but their unpredictable behavior near the sun underscores how little control humanity has over these bodies.
The insurance industry should be considering not only the prospect of an actual impact but also the indirect risks: disruptions to satellites from dust and debris tails, geomagnetic disturbances, or mass panic from a brightening comet misinterpreted as a collision course. Each scenario creates potential claims, whether from lost communication networks, business interruption, or even liability suits over inadequate preparation.
Shareholder Duty and Policyholder Rights
The greatest concern is not simply whether insurers have run the numbers but whether they are willing to admit it. Shareholders expect risk management that is both comprehensive and transparent. Policyholders expect coverage that matches the risks they face. The silence of the industry creates suspicion that insurers have chosen to gamble with cosmic uncertainty rather than face the costs of updating actuarial models.
The obligation to disclose risks extends beyond ethics. Publicly traded insurers are bound by securities laws to provide accurate assessments of potential threats to their business. If a significant space-event risk is ignored or minimized, and losses later devastate the balance sheet, shareholders could demand accountability in court. The consequences could resemble securities litigation seen in climate-related disclosure cases, only with cosmic stakes.
