Likelihood of DOJ Success
The DOJ’s chances of prevailing here are extremely high. In fact, this may be one of the cleanest election-related cases the Civil Rights Division has filed in recent memory. Unlike messy disputes over voter ID laws or redistricting maps, this is about straightforward statutory compliance. Either the states provided the lists or they did not. Courts are unlikely to indulge vague privacy objections when Congress has spoken directly on the issue.
If DOJ succeeds — and I believe they will — the immediate effect will be orders compelling each of the six states to turn over their voter rolls. The broader impact will be a strong national precedent. States across the country will know that failing to comply with federal voter-list requirements will trigger swift and decisive litigation.
This isn’t simply about paperwork. It’s about election integrity. By forcing transparency in voter registration data, the DOJ is closing one of the most common avenues for potential fraud and abuse: bloated, inaccurate, or outdated rolls.
