Global crude markets convulsed after U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iran early Saturday, triggering swift retaliation and raising fears of a broader regional war. The escalation — described by President Donald Trump as an effort to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program and potentially end its current regime — has injected fresh volatility into an already fragile oil landscape.
The shockwaves were immediate. Oil jumps 10% on Iran conflict became the dominant narrative across trading desks as investors braced for supply disruptions in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.
Trump announced on Truth Social that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had been killed in the strikes. Iranian authorities later confirmed his death.
Markets Close Higher, But Sunday Looms Large
By Friday’s close, futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, climbed roughly 2.9% to settle above $72.80 per barrel. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) rose about 2.8% to trade above $67.
But analysts warn those moves may only foreshadow sharper gains.
Without clear signs of deescalation over the weekend, oil prices could spike an additional $10 to $20 per barrel when markets reopen Sunday night, said Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.
“Given the scale of retaliation, most of the strategic initiative now lies with Iran,” León said. “How Tehran chooses to respond over the next 24 to 72 hours — especially toward energy infrastructure or regional shipping — will be the primary driver of near-term oil market dynamics.”
