OPEC+ Moves, But Risks Mount
On Sunday, the OPEC+ alliance — of which Iran is a founding member — raised its production quota by 220,000 barrels per day, exceeding the anticipated 137,000 bpd increase.
Industry rumors had suggested the group might significantly boost output to temper upward price pressure. But León said any additional barrels would likely “mute some upside pressure on prices Monday morning, but only marginally in the face of heightened geopolitical risk.”
Iran produces roughly 3.4 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4% of global supply, and exports between 1 million and 2 million barrels daily, according to Kpler. Most sanctioned shipments are directed to China.
“Surrender or Certain Death”
In a speech posted to Truth Social, Trump described the U.S. campaign as a “massive and ongoing operation” aimed not only at crippling Iran’s nuclear capabilities but also destroying its navy and destabilizing proxy groups financed by Tehran.
Over the past two months, the United States has deployed significant military assets to the Gulf — the largest air power buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq — a move that had already embedded geopolitical risk premiums into oil prices.
While Trump stopped short of explicitly declaring regime change as a formal objective, he urged Iran’s armed forces to choose between surrender or “certain death” and encouraged protesters to overthrow their government.
In past flare-ups — including U.S. and Israeli airstrikes last summer targeting Iranian nuclear enrichment sites — oil prices initially surged before retreating as retaliation proved limited. Early indications suggest this round of Iranian response is broader and more aggressive.
As crude markets prepare to reopen, traders are staring at a volatile horizon — one where a single missile, a mined shipping lane, or a disrupted pipeline could send prices spiraling further.
