A catastrophic event similar to the Chicxulub impactor, responsible for the extinction of dinosaurs 66 million years ago, is estimated to happen on 100-million-year timescales.
Sentry Tracks Possible Collision Course
Once reported to the Minor Planet Center, asteroid 2024 YR4 quickly became a focal point for astronomers and NASA. It was added to the Sentry Impact Risk Table, a system tracking asteroids with a potential Earth impact.
Current projections indicate a little over a 1% chance of impact on December 22, 2032. On the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which ranks NEO threats on a scale from 0 to 10, YR4 has been assigned a rating of 3, which is the second highest ever recorded.
Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Planetary Defence Office, reassured the public: “We aren’t just waiting for an asteroid to strike. We are taking active measures to help Earth defend itself against a potential impact.”
The Apophis Example
Astronomers compare YR4 and Apophis, another asteroid that once posed a significant threat. Discovered in 2004, Apophis initially reached a rating of 4 on the Torino Scale, with an estimated 2.7% chance of striking Earth in 2029.
