FOLLOW US

Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran continues to possess a substantial capacity to launch missiles and deploy drones, even after more than a month of sustained U.S. and Israeli strikes on military infrastructure, according to three sources familiar with the findings.

The assessments suggest that approximately half of Iran’s missile launchers remain operational, while thousands of one-way attack drones are still available in its arsenal.

“They are still very much poised to wreak absolute havoc throughout the entire region,” one of the sources said of Iran.

Officials cautioned that the launcher count may include systems that are currently unusable, such as those buried beneath rubble from airstrikes but not fully destroyed.

The intelligence, compiled in recent days, also estimates that roughly 50% of Iran’s drone capabilities remain intact, according to two sources. Additionally, a significant portion of Iran’s coastal defense cruise missiles appears to have survived the campaign. Those weapons are critical to Tehran’s ability to threaten maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and their survival aligns with the U.S. military’s focus on inland targets rather than coastal systems, though naval vessels have been struck.

The findings present a more complex picture of Iran’s military condition than the sweeping claims of success made publicly by President Donald Trump and senior administration officials.

In an address Wednesday evening, Trump said Iran’s “ability to launch missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed, and their weapons factories and rocket launchers are being blown to pieces, very few of them left.”

U.S. Central Command reported that, as of Wednesday, more than 12,300 targets inside Iran have been hit. Sources acknowledged that the campaign has significantly weakened Iran’s military and eliminated senior leadership figures, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Ali Larijani, who headed Iran’s National Security Council.

Despite those losses, intelligence indicates Iran still possesses a considerable missile stockpile alongside its remaining launchers.

Public statements from the Pentagon have emphasized a decline in the number of attacks launched rather than the destruction of Iran’s inventory. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said during a March 19 briefing that “ballistic missile attacks against our forces, down 90 percent since the start of the conflict, same with one way attack UAVs, think kamikaze drones, down 90 percent.”

Responding to questions, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly dismissed the reporting.

“Anonymous sources desperately want to attack President Trump and demean the incredible work of our United States Military in achieving the goals of Operation Epic Fury,” she said.

“Here are the facts: Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks are down 90 percent, their navy is wiped out, two-thirds of their production facilities are damaged or destroyed, and the United States and Israel have overwhelming air dominance over Iran,” Kelly added. “The terrorist regime is being decimated militarily and their dismal situation grows bleaker by the day – their only hope is to make a deal with President Trump’s administration and leave behind their nuclear ambitions for good. Otherwise, they will be hit harder than they’ve ever been hit before.”

Another administration official said Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities are being reduced quickly.

Nevertheless, Israel, Gulf nations and U.S. forces continue to face frequent missile and drone attacks.

Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell rejected the reporting, calling it “completely wrong.”

“The United States military has delivered a crippling series of blows to the Iranian regime,” Parnell said. “We are far ahead of schedule on accomplishing our military objectives: destroy Iran’s missile arsenal, annihilate their Navy, destroy their terrorist proxies, and ensure Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon.”

Israeli officials estimate that only 20% to 25% of Iran’s launchers remain operational. Their figures exclude systems rendered inaccessible in underground tunnels or caves, according to both a U.S. source familiar with the intelligence and an Israeli source.

Trump said Wednesday that U.S. operations could conclude within two to three weeks.

One source who reviewed the intelligence assessment questioned that timeline.

“We can keep f**king them up, I don’t doubt it, but you’re out of your mind if you think this will be done in two weeks,” the source said.

Hegseth said this week that Iran’s offensive capabilities continue to decline.

“Yes, they will still shoot some missiles, but we will shoot them down,” he said. “Of note, the last 24 hours saw the lowest number of enemy missiles and drones fired by Iran. They will go underground, but we will find them.”

Iran’s use of underground infrastructure is a major factor limiting further degradation of its launch systems, according to two sources. For decades, Tehran has developed extensive tunnel networks to conceal military assets, complicating targeting efforts. Mobile launch platforms have also been difficult to track, as they can be quickly relocated after firing, presenting challenges similar to those faced by U.S. forces dealing with Houthi fighters in Yemen.

In response, U.S. and Israeli forces have increasingly targeted tunnel entrances and equipment used to access buried systems, such as bulldozers and other heavy machinery, said Annika Ganzeveld of the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project.

The intelligence review comes as the U.S. faces difficulties reopening the Strait of Hormuz, privately acknowledging that restoring full access to the vital shipping route may not be possible before the conflict ends. One source said coastal missile systems may remain largely intact because they have not been a primary focus of the air campaign and may also be concealed underground.

While Iran’s conventional navy has been largely destroyed, the naval arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retains about half of its capabilities, according to one source. Another said the IRGC still operates “hundreds, if not thousands, of small boats and unmanned surface vessels.”

U.S. Central Command said Wednesday that more than 155 Iranian vessels have been damaged or destroyed, though analysts note uncertainty over whether those figures refer to Iran’s regular navy or IRGC forces.

Ganzeveld said the IRGC Navy is primarily responsible for harassing commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

“There are certainly things that remain — the proxies, as well as the drones, and Iran recently demonstrated in the past couple of days that it still retains the ability to target shipping in the strait,” Ganzeveld said. “So there are definitely things that remain to be targeted if we want to completely destroy these capabilities.”