The nightmare scenario is not simply Iranian retaliation. It is the possibility of prolonged instability or even state collapse next door.
Fear of Chaos — Not Just Conflict
Regional analysts increasingly point out that Gulf states fear what comes after a potential strike as much as the strike itself. A destabilized Iran could unleash economic shockwaves, refugee flows, internal fragmentation, and the empowerment of more radical factions.
For Iraq, the stakes are especially high. After decades of war, sanctions, insurgency, and political upheaval, the country remains fragile. Iraqi leaders are keenly aware that a U.S.-Iran confrontation on their territory could inflame sectarian tensions and draw armed groups into renewed violence.
Major Iraqi political blocs — even those with ties to Tehran — have little appetite for becoming the arena of a proxy showdown. Stability, however imperfect, is preferable to another cycle of destruction.
The Risk to Gulf Security
From a purely security standpoint, Gulf leaders remember recent history. Infrastructure in the region has previously been targeted during periods of heightened confrontation. Energy facilities, shipping lanes, and military bases remain vulnerable to missile and drone attacks.
