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Voters in the 8^th congressional district of Arizona will elect a new representative in Congress on Tuesday. Republican candidate Debbie Lesko, a former state senator, will likely win against Democrat Hiral Tiperneni, a physician.

The candidates are seeking to take the seat vacated by former Rep. Trent Franks, who resigned last year due to sexual harassment allegations. Arizona Republicans are cautiously optimistic that Lesko will defeat her opponent since the 8th congressional district is one of their strongholds.

In 2016, President Donald Trump won the district by 21 percentage points. Mitt Romney had advantage of 25 percentage points in the district in 2012. It is important to note that voters in Arizona’s 8^th district have not elected a Democrat since the 1980s.

As of Friday, April 20, more than 154,000 voters (48.5% Republicans and 27.7% Democrats) already casted their ballots, according to Arizona of State early ballot return statistics. So far, Arizona Republicans have 21 percentage-point advantage, but the Democrats could close the gap today.

Arizona Special Election 8^th Congressional District—Latest Polls

The April 10 survey from OH Predictive Insights showed that Lesko was ahead by 10% as 53% of voters favored her compared to 43% for Tiperneni.

The survey from Emerson College from April 12 to 15 indicated that Tiperneni is leading by 1% at 46% compared to Lesko’s 45%.

The April 14 to 16 survey from Lake Research Partners showed that both candidates are neck-and-neck at 44%.

Based on the latest special election polls, Lesko is ahead by an average of three percentage points against Tipirneni. However, the polls also showed that Tiperneni was able to close the gap.

In an interview with Politico, Chip Scutari, a Republican consultant in Arizona, a single-digit win for Lesko in the district is a “wake-up call” for the party’s elected officials. He also commented that the “anti-Trump mood has reached a new stratosphere.”

On the other hand, Dan Eberhart, a major Republican donor in the state, said, Republicans watching the race.

“If Lesko wins by a slim margin in a district that overwhelmingly went for President Trump, it will mean statewide candidates are going to have a rough road to hoe. If Tipirneni wins ... the Republicans are the clear underdogs in the Arizona Senate race this fall.”