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The threat of AI taking jobs from humans has been a persistent concern, with numerous estimates and projections highlighting the potential impact on the workforce. 

 Reports from the World Economic Forum, estimating the replacement of 85 million jobs worldwide by 2025, are fueling the fears.

The latest study conducted by MIT's Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) looks more optimistic when it suggests the widespread replacement of human jobs by AI may take decades.

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AI Taking Jobs 

While AI is anticipated to enhance productivity across various industries it may also cause job displacement among workers.

For example, a 2019 McKinsey study projected that 4.5 million jobs held by Black Americans could be disrupted by AI by 2030, particularly in areas overrepresented by these workers, such as fast-food and service positions.

MIT's Groundbreaking Study

In a working paper titled "Beyond AI Exposure: Which Tasks are Cost-Effective to Automate with Computer Vision?" MIT researchers utilized a pioneering "first end-to-end AI automation model."

The aim was to address anxieties about AI and provide a comprehensive analysis of the feasibility of automating tasks using computer vision.

Key Findings 

The study revealed that only 23% of worker compensation exposed to AI computer vision would be cost-effective for firms to automate.

This limitation is attributed to the substantial upfront costs associated with implementing AI systems. Even with a rapid annual decrease in AI development costs by 20%, the researchers argue that it would still take decades for computer vision tasks to become economically efficient for firms.

Global Perspectives on AI 

International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva has warned in a recent blog post that approximately 40% of global employment has AI exposure. And up to 60% of jobs in advanced economies are at risk.

While acknowledging the potential for AI to exacerbate existing inequalities, she emphasizes the urgent need for policymakers to act swiftly to mitigate these effects.

Labor Market Dynamics 

Contrary to the perception of a sudden upheaval, the MIT researchers anticipate a more gradual impact of AI on the labor market.

They suggest that, initially, there could be a significant shock as certain tasks become more affordable and attractive to automate. However, the subsequent effects are expected to be incremental rather than an abrupt takeover of jobs by AI.

Fine-Tuning 

The researchers claim there will be challenges of fine-tuning and customization in generative AI. They emphasize that these processes remain cost restrictive. This adds a layer of complexity to the narrative, suggesting that the customization required for certain tasks is not currently economically viable.