Financial Outlook: Growth in High Gear
Genius Sports released preliminary, unaudited estimates for fiscal year 2025, reporting:
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Group Revenue of $669 million, up 31% year over year
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Group Adjusted EBITDA of $136 million, up 59% year over year
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Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20%
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Cash and cash equivalents of $281 million
On a standalone basis, the company expects 2026 revenue of approximately $810 million to $820 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $180 million to $190 million. At the midpoint, that reflects revenue growth of 22% and EBITDA growth of 36%, with margins rising to 23%.
With Legend integrated, the combined company projects 2026 pro forma revenue of roughly $1.1 billion and Adjusted EBITDA between $320 million and $330 million, with free cash flow conversion near 50%.
Looking further ahead, Genius Sports set ambitious 2028 targets:
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Group Revenue of $1.6 billion, implying about 21% CAGR from 2026
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Adjusted EBITDA margin near 35%
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Free cash flow conversion of at least 60%
The company said the acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to Group Adjusted EBITDA margins and free cash flow conversion while maintaining at least 20% Group Revenue CAGR through 2028.
