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America October 14, 2022 2 mins read

Investors Could Avoid “Lost Decade”, According to Bank of America

America ı By Rochdi Rais

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bank of america by javier haro via Javier Haro Unsplash

There have been more warnings of a "lost decade" of returns for the stock market in recent months. Still, the chances of that actually happening appear less likely, given this year's massive 25% plunge.

That's according to a Friday note from Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian, who was one of the first on Wall Street to warn of a potential lost decade late last year.

She noted that with plummeting stock markets come falling valuations, which are now starting to appear attractive for longer-term investors. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings multiple has plunged considerably so far this year, with the trailing and forward P/E ratios dropping 36% and 29%, respectively.

A valuation model used by the bank suggests forward annualized price returns of 6% for the S&P 500 over the next decade. That's the highest return forecast since May 2020. 

"Valuation matters long-term, explaining ~80% of subsequent 10-yr S&P 500 returns," Subramanian said. "And this year's bear market provides an attractive opportunity for long-term investors." 

This would put the S&P 500 at just above 6,500 by 2032, representing a potential surge of nearly 80% from Thursday's close. With the addition of a 2% dividend yield, total annualized returns could be as high as 8%, according to Subramanian.  

But while long-term forecasts look the best they have in over two years, short-term looks more dicey for the stock market, and "near-term pain remains," she said.

"While the S&P 500 fell below our year-end target of 3,600, we continue to expect volatility in the market," Subramanian said, adding that only 20% of her bull market indicators have flashed positive so far. Typically, prior stock market bottoms have seen 80% of those indicators flash green, according to the note.

 

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Rochdi Rais
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Rochdi Rais

Rochdi Rais is the Fractional Head of Growth and financial and legal writer at USA Herald. He has been writing and editing financial, legal and U.S. news for years with over +4000 articles published during his career.

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