JPMorgan’s chief economist said that there’s no reason to be worried about a US recession, thanks to a private sector that’s in “remarkable” shape.
With inflation surging, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many analysts have become anxious that US growth could go into reverse.
However, Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan’s chief economist, told Bloomberg TV Monday that although the economy is likely to slow, the risks of a recession over the next 12 months are low.
“There’s no real reason to be worried about a recession,” he said. “I think you’d have to get hit by much bigger shocks to really talk about a recession anytime in the next 12 months or so.”
Kasman added that inflation — which is running at 40-year highs in the US — and a rise in interest rates posed problems for the economy. Still, Americans have enough savings to keep spending even during the era of higher prices, he said.
“I think what we have here is a pretty powerful tension between drags that are not going away and a very resilient private sector, with the health of both households and corporates being quite remarkable right now,” he told Bloomberg.