Sports wagering tied to the 2026 Super Bowl could reach $1.76 billion, with prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket gaining momentum after a federal policy shift. The change has expanded sports trading nationwide, prompting debate over regulation, consumer safeguards, and the NFL’s concerns about game integrity.
Betting activity connected to the 2026 Super Bowl is on pace to reach a new high, with analysts estimating that sportsbooks could process about $1.76 billion in wagers. Alongside traditional bets, prediction markets are drawing a rising share of attention as traders place positions on outcomes linked to the championship game.
Prediction markets operate through contracts that pay out based on real-world results. Users can take positions on everything from which team wins to smaller game-related events. These platforms frame participation as trading rather than gambling, a structure that has allowed them to operate across all 50 states.
Their expansion follows a recent policy change at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency overseeing derivatives markets. The commission stepped back from a 2024 proposal that would have limited political and sports-related contracts. CFTC Chair Michael Selig said the agency plans to write clearer rules that support lawful activity in the sector.
The updated stance has given companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket more room to grow before one of the most watched sporting events of the year. Industry consultant Dustin Gouker, who publishes the gambling-focused newsletter Closing Line, said sports contracts now account for roughly 90% of Kalshi’s trading volume. He expects that share to stay high as public interest rises around major events like the Super Bowl.
The growth has raised questions about where investing ends and gambling begins. Sports betting remains restricted in several states, yet prediction markets can be accessed nationwide. Critics say this gap creates confusion for consumers and regulators.
The NFL has signaled caution. A source familiar with league policy said commercials tied to prediction markets will not run during the Super Bowl broadcast. In earlier testimony before Congress, NFL executive vice president Jeff Miller said the league has no plans to engage with these platforms, citing legal and regulatory concerns and the possible effect on competition integrity. He warned that large financial stakes tied directly to game outcomes may increase risks to the fairness of contests.
Kalshi says it uses internal monitoring systems to detect suspicious activity and partners with IC360, an integrity firm that works with sportsbooks and professional leagues. Polymarket did not provide comment.
Consumer advocates argue the issue goes beyond league oversight. Jonathan Cohen, author of Losing Big: America’s Reckless Bet on Sports Gambling, said prediction markets face fewer requirements to protect users than traditional betting operators. He contends that easier digital access may expose vulnerable groups to higher risk.
Research supports those concerns. A 2024 poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University found that 24% of men reported at least one problem gambling behavior, with the rate climbing to 45% among men aged 30 and under. Analysts say constant online availability and event-driven trading may add financial pressure for younger users.
With the Super Bowl drawing national attention and regulators adopting a more permissive approach, prediction markets are set to play a larger role in sports wagering. The debate over how to balance innovation, oversight, and consumer protection is likely to continue as the market expands.
