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And More October 6, 2022 2 mins read

The Fed Could “Break” Financial Markets If They Hold on to their Hawkishness, Says Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd

And More ı By Rochdi Rais

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Scott Minered Guggenheim

The Federal Reserve will likely pivot away from aggressive interest rate hikes soon – and if it doesn't make the move, it could "break" financial markets, according to Guggenheim Partners' Scott Minerd.

On Thursday, Minerd told CNBC's "Closing Bell: Overtime" that the Fed will likely have to halt or reverse its tightening campaign soon.

"All the signs are there," he said. "I can't tell you exactly what will cause it, but the environment is ripe."

"And when the Fed pivots, they're not going to preannounce it, they're not going to ring a bell."

The US central bank is closely monitoring inflation and employment data releases, the Guggenheim global investment chief noted in a recent outlook. But he helieves financial stability and market functioning should also be on the central bank's radar.

"The environment is ripe for a crisis, and if the Fed keeps its hawkish communication up, I think we're quite likely to have something break in the financial markets," he told CNBC. 

Minerd pointed to the UK — where the Bank of England has started temporarily buying government bonds to stabilize debt markets — as one example of central bank tightening leading to breakages. 

"We are seeing cracks all over the place," he said. "Of course one of the biggest was the incident we saw in the UK where the Bank of England had to step into the gilt market."

"We have this synchronized tightening by all the central banks around the world, including the Bank of Japan and the ECB," Minerd said. "Global liquidity is receding rapidly."

The US central bank will be eyeing Friday's non-farm payrolls data, Minerd said. 

"It's just a matter of a pinprick that could bring about a Fed pause or a pivot," Minerd said. "75% of the time over the last 25 years, non-farm payrolls have come in lower than expectation for the month of September." 

"Something like that would probably catch investors off-guard and could immediately lead to a rally," he said.

 

 

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Rochdi Rais

Rochdi Rais is the Head of Growth and financial and legal writer at USA Herald. He has been writing and editing financial, legal and U.S. news for years with over +4000 articles published during his career.

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