This data suggests Kennedy siphons more votes from Republicans than he does Democrats. Some conservative voters who aren’t happy with Trump, yet can’t bring themselves to cast a ballot for Harris, might instead opt to back Kennedy in November.
In other words, the Independent ticket currently lacks enough support to come close to 270 electoral votes. However, Kennedy’s presence in the race can attract just enough right-wing support to tank Trump’s chances at a second presidential term.
Polls don’t vote, but people do
While polls are an indicator of public sentiment, what ultimately makes a difference is Americans who vote. On the Democratic side, Harris, Walz, and others are campaigning mightily to win the election. They’re also attempting to reach voters across the political spectrum.
Some Republicans who feel disgruntled with Trump’s hold over the GOP are now stating they’ll vote for the vice president in November. If the Harris-Walz ticket gets strong in-party and crossover support as Trump-Vance loses votes to Kennedy, a Democratic election victory appears most likely.
