He pointed out that although jobless claims remained high, the large number of job openings kept unemployment relatively stable. And while the yield curve on the 10-year and three-month Treasury notes were on track to invert, a downturn usually doesn’t follow until at least 11 months after an inversion.
That may suggest long-term hawkishness isn’t necessary, and the Fed’s insistence on tightening the economy could amount to overkill that leads to a more prolonged period of contraction.
“Yes, we may have a recession, but it may be a year from now, 18 months from now, and being early on calling a recession is being wrong,” Golub said.
