Market expectations for inflation are falling rapidly, according to Credit Suisse chief stock strategist Jonathan Golub, and the Fed may be at risk of overtightening the economy by only reading "half of the story."

"Inflation expectations are absolutely collapsing on where inflation is going to be a year or 18 months from now," Golub said in an interview with Bloomberg on Friday.

He cited signals in the US Treasury market, where the one-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of inflation expectations a year from now, predicted sub-2% inflation in 2023.

That's likely being driven by falling energy prices in the US. Henry Hub Natural Gas stood at $8.03 per million British Thermal units at 1:00 pm ET on Friday, down 20% from a previous high of $9.68 this summer.

"Why would the Fed unnecessarily drive us into recession, kill several million American jobs if in fact inflation is heading in the right direction?" Golub said.

And although two recession indicators were flashing in the economy, Golub believed the Fed was "only looking at half the story," as the indicators aren't as severe as central bankers may be interpreting.

He pointed out that although jobless claims remained high, the large number of job openings kept unemployment relatively stable. And while the yield curve on the 10-year and three-month Treasury notes were on track to invert, a downturn usually doesn't follow until at least 11 months after an inversion. 

That may suggest long-term hawkishness isn't necessary, and the Fed's insistence on tightening the economy could amount to overkill that leads to a more prolonged period of contraction. 

"Yes, we may have a recession, but it may be a year from now, 18 months from now, and being early on calling a recession is being wrong," Golub said.