Harris holds a narrow 50%-49% lead over Trump. The New York Times/Siena poll, released on October 8, shows Harris leading 49%-46%, marking the first time she has outperformed Trump in the group’s polling since July.
Harris’ overall lead has fluctuated over the past few months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average. FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast currently favors Harris to win 54 times out of 100, compared to Trump’s 46.
Nate Silver warns the race remains exceptionally close. “I’ve never seen an election in which the forecast spent more time in the vicinity of 50/50,” Silver wrote.
