Groundhogs vs. Accuracy: How Reliable is Punxsutawney Phil?
Phil’s track record, however, leaves much to be desired. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) analyzed the accuracy of various weather-predicting animals in the US, including Phil.
Out of 128 recorded predictions, Phil has seen his shadow 107 times—about 84% of the time. However, NOAA’s findings show that his accuracy rate is only 35%, placing him 17th among weather-predicting animals.
Punxsutawney Phil may be the most famous, but he’s not the only weather-predicting animal in the U.S. According to NOAA’s rankings:
- Staten Island Chuck (Charles G. Hogg) from New York had the highest accuracy rate at 85%.
- General Beauregard Lee from Georgia came in second with an 80% accuracy rate.
- Lander Lil, a bronze prairie dog statue in Wyoming, ranked third with a 75% success rate. Interestingly, she once went missing in 2001 before being rescued from a town dump.
- Mojave Max, a tortoise from Nevada and the only non-groundhog contender, placed 19th with a mere 25% accuracy rate.
Despite his questionable accuracy, Punxsutawney Phil remains a beloved figure.