Apple clearly knows this so they are working massively to reduce hurt the Essential Phone’s launch but, if rarity results in status, the Essential Phone becomes a bigger risk. This last is the interesting part because status often is conveyed through rarity, that is why a Diamond conveys more status than an Amethyst, but everyone and their brother has an iPhone, the Essential Phone will be far rarer and Andy Rubin is far more like Jobs than Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO is. Then again Rubin is having a few issues getting the Phone to market and you can’t win a war if you can’t field an army.
Will Essential Break Apple? They couldn’t without Apple’s help (which they are getting) but they still must execute and execution is proving elusive for Rubin’s firm. So, the odds suggest no, but then the odds haven’t been that reliable of a predictor in much of anything of late.