The last time the U.S. was seriously affected by a pandemic was the Spanish flu in 1918, where the U.S. saw about 675,000 H1N1 deaths. But while the flu itself caused the economy to depress, there is evidence that the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (like social distancing and prohibiting large gatherings) themselves did not have a long-term impact on the economy.
Which supports what many public health officials have already been saying: Take precautions now to prevent spread. Once the virus is contained, the economy can reopen safely.
Already, we’re seeing pressure to reopen despite recent coronavirus spikes, and many states, like Washington, are taking a phased approach to reopening. The White House is also supporting a phased approach, recommending that states wait until they’re seeing a 14-day downward trajectory of documented coronavirus cases among other criteria.
Phased approaches allow certain businesses, like restaurants and hair salons, to reopen while maintaining social distancing and mask-wearing. In come places restaurants are open for dine-in service but are instituting policies that limit the number of guests at each table and require guests to wear masks except when seated.
