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A defunct Soviet spacecraft, Kosmos 482, launched over 50 years ago in a mission gone awry, is expected to make an uncontrolled reentry into Earth’s atmosphere in the coming days. 

Initially intended to explore the surface of Venus, the space probe failed to leave Earth's orbit after a rocket malfunction in March 1972.

According to LiveScience, the spacecraft — roughly the size of a car — has been spiraling around the planet in a highly elliptical orbit ever since. Now, over five decades later, gravity and atmospheric drag are pulling it back down.

A Cold War Relic Returning to Earth

Scientists predict Kosmos 482 will reenter Earth’s atmosphere between May 7 and May 13, though pinpointing the exact time and location remains difficult.

Dutch orbital analyst Marco Langbroek estimates the spacecraft will reenter around May 10 and may strike Earth at speeds reaching 150 mph (242 kph) if it remains intact.

“While not without risk, we should not be too worried,” Langbroek said in an email.

The reentry zone spans a wide area between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude, which includes cities such as London and Edmonton, stretching down to Cape Horn in South America.

However, Langbroek added that, given the planet’s geography, “chances are good it will indeed end up in some ocean.”

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Could Kosmos 482 Survive Reentry?

The most concerning component is the landing capsule, a 3-foot-wide sphere weighing more than 1,000 pounds (nearly 500 kilograms). 

This part was designed to withstand a descent through Venus’ thick carbon dioxide atmosphere, increasing the likelihood it could also survive Earth's atmospheric entry.

British-American astronomer Jonathan McDowell warned in a blog post:

“The unit might well survive Earth atmosphere entry and hit the ground. In which case, I expect it’ll have the usual one-in-several-thousand chance of hitting someone.”

Langbroek agreed that “the risk is similar to that of a random meteorite fall, several of which happen each year.” He added, “You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime.”

What Happens If It Doesn’t Burn Up?

Experts are uncertain about the condition of the parachute system and heat shield after over 50 years in space. If the heat shield fails, the spacecraft could burn up on reentry, posing minimal threat.

McDowell explained:

“It would be better if the heat shield fails, which would cause the spacecraft to burn up... But if the heat shield holds, it’ll reenter intact and you have a half-ton metal object falling from the sky.”

While the chances of Kosmos 482 hitting a populated area remain small, its descent is a reminder of the long-term consequences of space debris.

This Soviet-era mission, originally designed to uncover Venusian secrets, now threatens to become a rare example of space hardware crashing back to Earth after decades in orbit.

Read more at the original report from the New York Post.