From a messaging standpoint, this is a win for Trump. The President has always harped that he thought it was a bad deal for the U.S. His “decertification” might end up being more symbolic than anything else. This decertification is really just a notification from the White House to Congress, with no real legal standing. Therefore, Trump can claim to his base that he torpedoed the deal without there having been any effect at all.
It does force Congress to act if it follows the President’s wishes. It must either impose new sanctions, or use this opportunity to force Iran back to the negotiating table under threat of sanctions.
Disagreement Among Diplomats and WH Advisors
Iran’s nuclear compliance has been a topic of controversy within the executive branch. Both Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis are supporters of the deal. If the deal fails now, Iran would be able to produce uranium and process plutonium starting immediately.
Britain, France, and Germany, all partners to the Iran deal, have been quietly pleading with Senate Republicans for the U.S. stay in the pact. Diplomats from those countries warned that Europe would not follow America’s footsteps if it withdraws.
