Comparing August 2016 polls to August 2020 polls, Trump wins over Biden in November 2020, by a very narrow Electoral College victory.
When you apply the changes between August 2016 polls of the Clinton-Trump presidential election and 2016 presidential election results to the August 2020 polls, Trump wins the US presidential election in November 2020, but by a slimmer margin than against Hilary Clinton.
On Election Day 2016, media outlets estimated Hillary Clinton was much more likely to win the presidency. The Huffington Post famously gave Hillary Clinton a 98% chance of beating Donald Trump in 2016
How wrong were polls in 2016?
As of August 24, 2016, major polling averages predicted Trump would lose the following states that he actually won on Election Day 2016:
- Florida
- Iowa
- Michigan
- North Carolina
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
- (Polls predicted Trump would win Georgia, but by less than 1 point.)
What if we applied those changes to 2020 polls?
Based on that amount of change from August-November 2016, if we apply the same change to August 2020 polls, here are the following states that Trump would win in November 2020 that he is currently projected to lose:
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- North Carolina
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
- (Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio will go Trump according to 2020 polls, but by less than 1 point.)
- (Also, in this scenario, Biden would end up winning Florida by 0.1%.)
That would lift Trump to a narrow Electoral College victory of 274-264.
