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Comparing August 2016 polls to August 2020 polls, Trump wins over Biden in November 2020, by a very narrow Electoral College victory.

When you apply the changes between August 2016 polls of the Clinton-Trump presidential election and 2016 presidential election results to the August 2020 polls, Trump wins the US presidential election in November 2020, but by a slimmer margin than against Hilary Clinton.

On Election Day 2016, media outlets estimated Hillary Clinton was much more likely to win the presidency. The Huffington Post famously gave Hillary Clinton a 98% chance of beating Donald Trump in 2016

How wrong were polls in 2016?

As of August 24, 2016, major polling averages predicted Trump would lose the following states that he actually won on Election Day 2016:

1. Florida
2. Iowa
3. Michigan
4. North Carolina
5. Ohio
6. Pennsylvania
7. Wisconsin
8. (Polls predicted Trump would win Georgia, but by less than 1 point.)

What if we applied those changes to 2020 polls?

Based on that amount of change from August-November 2016, if we apply the same change to August 2020 polls, here are the following states that Trump would win in November 2020 that he is currently projected to lose:

1. Michigan
2. Minnesota
3. North Carolina
4. Pennsylvania
5. Wisconsin
6. (Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio will go Trump according to 2020 polls, but by less than 1 point.)
7. (Also, in this scenario, Biden would end up winning Florida by 0.1%.)

That would lift Trump to a narrow Electoral College victory of 274-264.

With a victory that narrow, according to the average polling changes of 2016, both the Trump campaign and the Biden campaign may want to focus on smaller potential swing states, such as Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Maine.

What's different in 2020?

Now, there are a lot of contributing factors that apply to one election cycle and not the other. We can't talk about all of them here.

What was happening in 2016, but not in 2020?

• Hillary Clinton had similar unfavorable ratings to Trump. Biden has higher likability.
• Donald Trump had never served in political office.
• Donald Trump's infamous Access Hollywood tape leaked in early October 2016.
• James Comey's letter to Congress about Clinton was leaked in late October 2016.

What's happening in 2020, but not in 2016?

• The coronavirus pandemic has ravaged the economy, public health, and more. President Donald Trump recently contracted the virus.
• Mail-in voting will play a much bigger role.
• Donald Trump is an incumbent. He did not have to fight Republicans in a primary.

What's the same?

• Pollsters find it increasingly more difficult to accurately track Trump voters by traditional methods.
• Whoever is elected will be the oldest president ever on Inauguration Day.
• The Democratic nominee narrowly (debatable) beat the popular Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary.
• Presidential debates were and are less civil than previous debates.

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