Trump Wins in November, Says Comparison of 2016 to 2020 Polls

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With a victory that narrow, according to the average polling changes of 2016, both the Trump campaign and the Biden campaign may want to focus on smaller potential swing states, such as Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Maine.

What’s different in 2020?

Now, there are a lot of contributing factors that apply to one election cycle and not the other. We can’t talk about all of them here.

What was happening in 2016, but not in 2020?

  • Hillary Clinton had similar unfavorable ratings to Trump. Biden has higher likability.
  • Donald Trump had never served in political office.
  • Donald Trump’s infamous Access Hollywood tape leaked in early October 2016.
  • James Comey’s letter to Congress about Clinton was leaked in late October 2016.

What’s happening in 2020, but not in 2016?

  • The coronavirus pandemic has ravaged the economy, public health, and more. President Donald Trump recently contracted the virus.
  • Mail-in voting will play a much bigger role.
  • Donald Trump is an incumbent. He did not have to fight Republicans in a primary.

What’s the same?

  • Pollsters find it increasingly more difficult to accurately track Trump voters by traditional methods.
  • Whoever is elected will be the oldest president ever on Inauguration Day.
  • The Democratic nominee narrowly (debatable) beat the popular Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary.
  • Presidential debates were and are less civil than previous debates.

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