China’s BYD is expected to surpass Tesla as the world’s largest seller of electric vehicles on a full-year basis for the first time, marking a major shift in the global EV market.

Both companies are set to release their final 2025 sales figures, but available data already indicates that BYD has moved decisively ahead. In a statement issued Thursday, BYD said its sales of fully electric vehicles rose nearly 28% last year to about 2.26 million units.

Tesla has not yet published its official 2025 delivery numbers, though estimates compiled earlier this week point to roughly 1.6 million vehicle deliveries for the year, an approximate 8% decline from 2024. Tesla reports deliveries as its closest measure of sales, though the company does not provide a precise definition in its disclosures.

If confirmed, the milestone would cap a rapid ascent for BYD, which has grown from a largely domestic automaker into a global EV powerhouse. The achievement also underscores intensifying competition in the electric vehicle sector, particularly from Chinese manufacturers that have expanded aggressively in both scale and pricing.

Tesla’s performance in 2025 has been volatile. The company faced a sharp sell-off early in the year amid rising competition and reputational challenges tied to CEO Elon Musk’s political commentary. While shares later rebounded and reached a record closing high of $489.88 last month, driven in part by investor enthusiasm around Tesla’s progress in autonomous driving, vehicle sales have remained under pressure.

Musk said recently that Tesla has been testing driverless vehicles in Austin, Texas, without anyone inside the cars, expanding on a pilot program launched earlier with safety drivers. The developments have fueled optimism among investors despite slower growth in the company’s core EV business.

BYD’s rise reflects broader shifts in the global auto industry, as Chinese manufacturers gain market share through cost advantages, rapid product development and strong domestic demand. The company’s growing international footprint has positioned it as a leading challenger to established Western automakers in the transition to electric mobility.