ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — Russia and Ukraine agreed Wednesday to what U.S. negotiators called the largest humanitarian release of prisoners since the full-scale war began in 2022, capping two days of U.S.-mediated talks in the Emirati capital, the first face-to-face meeting between the two delegations in nine months. Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump's son-in-law and envoy, said the final numbers would be settled Thursday, and announced that he and special envoy Steve Witkoff will fly to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin before traveling to Dublin to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Key Takeaways

• The deal: Russia and Ukraine agreed in Abu Dhabi to a large prisoner-of-war exchange that U.S. envoy Jared Kushner called the biggest humanitarian release of the war, with numbers to be finalized Thursday.
• Who confirmed it: Russian delegation chief Vladimir Medinsky and Ukrainian delegation head Rustem Umerov both confirmed the planned swap, according to the Associated Press.
• What happens next: Kushner and Steve Witkoff are scheduled to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday, then Volodymyr Zelensky in Dublin.
• The hard part remains: Neither side has shown willingness to compromise on core demands such as territory and security guarantees, and the fighting continued throughout the talks.

The announcement is the most concrete result of the Trump administration's peace push in months. It also comes as the political ground in Washington shifts beneath the White House, with Democrats set to take control of Congress in January after last week's midterm elections.

"The Biggest Humanitarian Release of Prisoners"

Speaking to reporters after the second day of talks ended, Kushner framed the prisoner exchange as an early win from a process that had stalled since the last round of direct negotiations in Geneva in February.

"One of the positives is we agreed that we're going to have the biggest humanitarian release of prisoners, which we're going to finalize the numbers tomorrow," Kushner said, according to the Associated Press.

Vladimir Medinsky, the Kremlin aide who led Russia's delegation, and Rustem Umerov, who led Kyiv's team, both confirmed the planned exchange, the AP reported. Russia and Ukraine have periodically swapped prisoners throughout the nearly five-year war, but U.S. officials said this release would be larger than any before it.

For thousands of Ukrainian and Russian families, the agreement is the first tangible sign in months that the diplomatic track can still produce results. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly said the return of prisoners of war, detained civilians and children taken from Ukraine is a top priority in any negotiation.

What Was on the Table in Abu Dhabi

Zelensky said Tuesday's opening session, which ran nearly four hours, was "constructive and quite substantive." He said the talks centered largely on humanitarian issues, including possible prisoner exchanges, the return of Ukrainian civilians held in captivity, and the return of children taken from the country. Security guarantees for Ukraine were also discussed, he said.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the meeting "very productive," while cautioning that a breakthrough on ending the war would take time.

That caution is well founded. According to the AP, Russia and Ukraine have shown no sign of willingness to compromise on their central demands. Moscow has insisted on territorial concessions and limits on Ukraine's future security arrangements, while Kyiv has refused to give up land and wants firm Western guarantees against another invasion.

Europe's role is another flashpoint. Moscow does not want European governments involved in the direct negotiations. Even so, representatives of European governments, the European Union and NATO were present in Abu Dhabi and consulted with the Ukrainian delegation, officials said. Umerov said Kyiv's team was expected to meet with European officials on Wednesday, and Zelensky has said Europe should choose its own representative for the peace process this month, France 24 reported.

The War Did Not Pause for Diplomacy

Even as envoys met in the UAE, the fighting continued. Overnight, Russia struck the southern Zaporizhzhia region and the eastern city of Kharkiv, wounding seven civilians and damaging property, the AP reported.

Ukraine kept up its long-range drone campaign deep inside Russia. Russia's Defense Ministry said its air defenses downed 627 Ukrainian drones overnight. About 150 of them were over the region around St. Petersburg, according to regional Gov. Alexander Drozdenko, who said drones started a fire at the port of Ust-Luga, one of Russia's main oil export terminals, injuring three workers.

Along the front line itself, little territory has changed hands this year. Both countries are instead battering each other with missiles and drones, with Russian strikes inflicting heavy damage on Ukraine's power grid heading into winter.

Why the Timing Matters in Washington

The context for these talks is very different from February. Democrats won control of Congress in last week's midterm elections and will take over in January, and many Democrats have pushed for stronger support for Ukraine. That gives Kyiv potential new leverage on Capitol Hill and raises pressure on the White House to show results before the balance of power changes.

At the same time, Russia's wartime economy is under heavy strain, according to the AP, while Ukraine is reeling from the attacks on its energy infrastructure. Both pressures give each side some reason to keep talking, even if neither is ready to make major concessions.

The Group of Seven foreign ministers meeting in Paris this week underscored the stakes. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned Tuesday that if Russia is allowed to win in Ukraine, it is likely to try to take land from other countries, including NATO members, France 24 reported.

What It Means for Americans

For American taxpayers, the outcome of these talks bears directly on how much more U.S. military and financial aid Ukraine may need, and on the risk of a wider conflict involving NATO, which the United States is treaty-bound to defend. A durable settlement could also ease pressure on global energy and grain markets that have been rattled throughout the war, and more recently by the conflict with Iran.

For the Trump administration, a successful prisoner exchange would be a rare diplomatic deliverable at a time when the president is facing criticism over the Iran war and his party's midterm losses. But a swap is not a ceasefire. The real test will come in Moscow on Thursday, when Kushner and Witkoff sit down with Putin, and then in Dublin, when they bring whatever they hear to Zelensky.

What to Watch Next

The immediate questions are how many prisoners will be released, how quickly the exchange can be carried out, and whether it includes civilians and children, as Ukraine has demanded. Beyond that, officials will be watching whether the Moscow meeting produces any movement on a ceasefire, territory or security guarantees, and whether Europe secures a formal seat in future rounds.

Officials have signaled more talks could follow. For now, the Abu Dhabi round has delivered one thing both sides could agree on: bringing some of their people home.