FOLLOW US

Big headlines can sometimes cause a broad and a long term based shift in behaviors that we refer to as ‘generational’ shifts in spending. The latest hurricanes, fires and a mass shooting may just bring about such shifts, given the unfortunate circumstances.

Certain sectors of the economy and market are badly hit by natural disasters and tragic incidents whilst others flourish in the aftermath.  One major example is World War II, which cemented the US as the global manufacturing and trading hegemon for decades and spawned the baby boomers that formed the world we live in today.

Natural disasters

Seventy-eight million Americans have been hard hit by the hurricanes and fires. While the recent events have been humanitarian disasters, assessing their economic consequences for the country is more complex as so many factors come into play.

Boost to infrastructure and construction sectors

While the immediate economic consequences of disasters may be severe, some sectors experience a boost as rebuilding starts to take place.

Repairs to homes, roads, bridges and public buildings need to take place. Companies in all the sectors related to repairing the damage are likely to profit. So we believe construction spending will increase by 20% in the long term and a few hundred percent in the short run....Certain areas need to be completely rebuilt

Disruptions and backlogs

The natural disasters have caused not only disruptions but major backlogs in affected industries. There is already a backlog of about four years in the rebuilding of homes after the fires in California. Victims wanting to rebuild their homes are facing the harsh truth that they might have a long wait before overwhelmed construction companies are able to help them.

They are even battling to get insurance assessors in to assess the damage as they too are under pressure. The huge demand means that such companies are likely to have work lined up for many years to come.

Mass Shootings

In the wake of incidents like the Las Vegas mass murder at the Mandalay Bay Hotel, everyone wants to know what can be done to prevent another incident of this nature. Some have argued that better security could have prevented the Las Vegas shooting. Speculations like this will undoubtedly accelerate very strong, probably generational shifts in the size and investments in security spending.

Security changes after Sept. 11

Security solution providers are predicting a change in thinking after incidents like the one in Las Vegas. After the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, security measures at commercial buildings such as airports changed extensively.