The global economy may be heading into a stormy stretch, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned Tuesday, cautioning that U.S. tariffs, countertariffs and widening trade barriers could undermine fragile GDP growth by 2026. The group’s assessment paints a picture of an economy whose foundations are beginning to tremble under the weight of escalating trade conflict.
The OECD said rising trade restrictions between the U.S. and dozens of countries could “inflict significant damage” on global output and supply chains—an economic shockwave with the potential to unwind years of incremental progress.
“This outlook remains fragile,” the report declared, sounding an alarm about potentially turbulent years ahead.
A Surprising 2025 Resilience Gives Way to a 2026 Slowdown
Despite the report’s stark warnings, global GDP growth in 2025 was labeled “surprisingly robust”—a resilience the OECD attributed to companies rushing to move goods and accelerate production before higher tariffs take hold, a phenomenon economists call frontloading.
But the momentum appears short-lived.
According to the OECD:
