Goldman Sachs has pushed back its expectations for US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, citing softer labor market data and a more complex economic backdrop than previously anticipated.
The investment bank now forecasts two quarter point rate reductions in June and September 2026, delaying its earlier projection that cuts would begin in March and continue in June. The revised outlook follows the latest non farm payrolls report, which signaled a cooling jobs market, even as broader economic growth remains resilient.
Goldman said the Fed is likely to wait until mid year before easing policy, allowing more time for inflation to move closer to its target and for labor conditions to stabilize. While employment growth has slowed, the bank noted that the market has not weakened enough to force earlier action by policymakers.
Despite softer hiring data, Goldman highlighted stronger than expected GDP growth and diminishing effects from past tariff increases as key reasons the central bank can afford to remain patient. The firm said economic progress made in 2025 was partially obscured by temporary factors, including a one time boost linked to tariffs.
Under its updated forecast, Goldman expects the federal funds rate to end 2026 in a range of 3 to 3.25 percent. It also lowered its estimated probability of a US recession over the next 12 months to 20 percent, down from a previous estimate of 30 percent.
The bank cautioned that while the labor market appears to be finding balance, risks of further softening remain. That uncertainty, combined with gradually easing inflation pressures, is likely to keep the Fed cautious and data dependent in the months ahead.
The revised projection underscores how shifting economic signals continue to reshape expectations around the timing and pace of US monetary easing.
