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And More August 22, 2022 2 mins read

Nearly All Wall Street Investors Are Expecting a Recession In The Next Year

And More ı By Rochdi Rais

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WALL STREET

Wall Street is overwhelmingly expecting a recession in the next year and a half, with labor and inflation among top concerns, according to a survey from Stifel.   

Of the 70 corporate executives, business owners, and investors polled, 46% expect a recession this year, 33% see one next year, and 18% said the US is already in the middle of a downturn. A shy 3% don't expect a recession in the next 18 months.

Recession calls are soaring in recent months as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates to tame inflation. As a result, Wall Street sees the central bank as more concerned with taming prices as opposed to supporting growth.

However, the central bank's efforts to tame inflation have yet to ease fears. The Stifel survey found that 59% of respondents named inflation as one of their top three risks to their firm or investment portfolio. Meanwhile, 64% listed labor constraints, 54% said recession, and 53% said supply-chain disruptions.

But on supply chains, the survey also revealed some positive signs: 59% reported seeing improvement since the end of last year, while 21% saw no change in the situation and 20% said it got worse. 

In its most recent earnings call, Microsoft said the currency's surge is complicating both earnings and revenue. 

"The US dollar strengthened throughout the quarter, creating an additional headwind beyond what we shared mid-quarter," CFO Amy Hood said on July 26.

The strong dollar will remain a drag as the company projects full-year margins to be roughly flat, she added. 

General Electric echoed similar concerns on its earnings call. CFO Carolina Dybeck Happe estimated the dollar will account for a three-point negative hit to the bottom line. And if current interest rates persist, she expects a similar impact for the full year.

 

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Rochdi Rais

Rochdi Rais is the Fractional Head of Growth and financial and legal writer at USA Herald. He has been writing and editing financial, legal and U.S. news for years with over +4000 articles published during his career.

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