Wall Street is overwhelmingly expecting a recession in the next year and a half, with labor and inflation among top concerns, according to a survey from Stifel.
Of the 70 corporate executives, business owners, and investors polled, 46% expect a recession this year, 33% see one next year, and 18% said the US is already in the middle of a downturn. A shy 3% don’t expect a recession in the next 18 months.
Recession calls are soaring in recent months as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates to tame inflation. As a result, Wall Street sees the central bank as more concerned with taming prices as opposed to supporting growth.
However, the central bank’s efforts to tame inflation have yet to ease fears. The Stifel survey found that 59% of respondents named inflation as one of their top three risks to their firm or investment portfolio. Meanwhile, 64% listed labor constraints, 54% said recession, and 53% said supply-chain disruptions.
But on supply chains, the survey also revealed some positive signs: 59% reported seeing improvement since the end of last year, while 21% saw no change in the situation and 20% said it got worse.