Tensions are rising as the United States appears ready to strike Iran, potentially within days. While analysts have some ideas of likely targets, the broader consequences remain unpredictable.
If no diplomatic breakthrough occurs, and President Donald Trump orders a military operation, these are some of the potential outcomes experts are considering:
1. Precision Strikes with Limited Collateral Damage
U.S. forces could carry out targeted air and naval operations focused on Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, missile storage facilities, and nuclear sites. In an optimistic scenario, this might weaken the regime and eventually open the door to political reform. However, history offers cautionary tales: similar interventions in Iraq and Libya toppled leaders but resulted in prolonged instability and conflict.
2. Regime Endures but Adjusts Policies
Another possibility is that Iran’s government survives, but modifies key policies under pressure. This could include scaling back support for proxy militias, halting nuclear development, or loosening internal repression. Analysts note this is unlikely given the regime’s long-standing resilience and defiance.
3. Collapse of the Regime, Military Takes Control
A military-led transition is a strong possibility. While popular unrest has weakened the government over the years, Iran’s powerful security apparatus—the Revolutionary Guards in particular—remains intact. In a post-strike scenario, the military could seize power to maintain order, but uncertainty would remain high.
4. Retaliation Against U.S. Forces and Regional Allies
Iran could respond using ballistic missiles and drones, targeting U.S. bases across the Gulf, as well as infrastructure in countries perceived to be supporting the attack. Previous attacks, such as the 2019 strike on Saudi oil facilities, illustrate how Iran can disrupt critical targets despite conventional military disadvantages.
5. Mining the Gulf and Disrupting Trade
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil and natural gas, could become a target. Iran has a history of deploying naval mines to disrupt shipping lanes. A similar action today could cause international trade disruptions and spike global energy prices.
6. Direct Attack on U.S. Naval Assets
Iran’s navy specializes in asymmetric warfare, including swarm attacks using drones and fast attack boats. Though unlikely, an attack on a U.S. warship could have serious consequences, including loss of life, strategic setbacks, and major international tensions. Historical incidents, like the USS Cole bombing in 2000, demonstrate the real risks.
7. Regime Collapses into Chaos
Perhaps the most concerning scenario involves a complete collapse of the Iranian government, leading to civil unrest or even civil war. Ethnic and regional conflicts could intensify, producing humanitarian crises and destabilizing the wider Middle East.
While military planners weigh these possibilities, neighboring countries—including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Israel—are closely monitoring developments. Any strike could trigger ripple effects far beyond Iran’s borders, complicating U.S. objectives and global stability.
At the heart of this tension is the looming deadline on Iran’s nuclear program and Trump’s insistence that decisive action is necessary. Yet analysts warn that without a clear strategy for post-strike governance, any intervention carries significant risks, including prolonged conflict, civilian suffering, and geopolitical fallout.
