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A potentially powerful “El Niño” weather pattern is raising alarms among meteorologists and climate experts who warn the phenomenon could fuel extreme heat, dangerous storms, flooding, and unusual weather patterns across the globe through 2026 and into 2027.

Forecasters say conditions are increasingly favorable for what many are informally calling a “super El Niño,” a particularly strong version of the climate cycle that can dramatically alter weather worldwide.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is now an 82% chance that El Niño conditions will develop between May and July, with a 96% chance the system will continue through the winter of 2026-2027.

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Meteorologists say the event could influence everything from hurricane seasons and heat waves to flooding patterns and drought conditions in the United States and abroad.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño refers to a naturally occurring climate phenomenon caused by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. Those warmer waters disrupt global wind patterns and atmospheric circulation, often triggering widespread weather changes.

El Niño events typically occur every two to five years. However, exceptionally strong versions can create more dramatic consequences.

Experts often use the informal phrase “super El Niño” when Pacific Ocean temperatures climb at least 2 degrees Celsius above average.

NBC meteorologist Al Roker said current data suggests this event may rank among the strongest on record.

“Anything is possible, but you look at all the data, and it looks like it’s going to be one of the strongest El Niños on record,” Roker told TODAY.com.

Learn more about El Niño monitoring through the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Why Scientists Are Concerned About El Niño

The growing concern stems partly from the connection between El Niño and rising global temperatures.

The last El Niño event, which lasted from 2023 into 2024, coincided with what NOAA later identified as the hottest year ever recorded globally.

While El Niño was not the sole cause, scientists say the climate pattern amplified already rising temperatures driven by climate change.

NBC News senior meteorologist Kathryn Prociv warned that warmer global conditions increase the risk of severe weather disasters.

“A warmer globe means extreme weather events,” Prociv explained. “That can influence hurricanes, heat waves, potential flood patterns and more.”

Climate researchers say higher ocean temperatures can inject additional energy into the atmosphere, intensifying storms and increasing rainfall potential in some regions while worsening droughts in others.

West Coast and Hawaii Could Face Major El Niño Impacts

Historically, the U.S. West Coast and Hawaii often experience some of the strongest El Niño effects.

Meteorologists say Pacific hurricane activity could increase significantly if the event strengthens further.

The last major El Niño produced unusual weather events across the western United States, including Hurricane Hilary, which brought tropical storm conditions and historic flooding to parts of California, Arizona, Nevada, and Utah.

The storm prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a rare tropical storm warning for Southern California.

“It caused all the record-setting flooding and tropical moisture in areas that don’t typically see that amount of rain in a year,” Prociv said.

Extreme Heat Could Intensify El Niño

A potentially powerful “El Niño” weather pattern is raising alarms among meteorologists and climate experts who warn the phenomenon could fuel extreme heat, dangerous storms, flooding, and unusual weather patterns across the globe through 2026 and into 2027. Forecasters say conditions are increasingly favorable for what many are informally calling a “super El Niño,” a particularly strong version of the climate cycle that can dramatically alter weather worldwide.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is now an 82% chance that El Niño conditions will develop between May and July, with a 96% chance the system will continue through the winter of 2026-2027.

New “green card” Policy Forces Many Immigrants to leave the US During Residency Process - USA Herald 

Meteorologists say the event could influence everything from hurricane seasons and heat waves to flooding patterns and drought conditions in the United States and abroad.

El Niño events typically occur every two to five years. However, exceptionally strong versions can create more dramatic consequences.

Experts often use the informal phrase “super El Niño” when Pacific Ocean temperatures climb at least 2 degrees Celsius above average.

NBC meteorologist Al Roker said current data suggests this event may rank among the strongest on record.

“Anything is possible, but you look at all the data, and it looks like it’s going to be one of the strongest El Niños on record,” Roker told TODAY.com.

Learn more about El Niño monitoring through the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Why Scientists Are Concerned About El Niño

The growing concern stems partly from the connection between El Niño and rising global temperatures.

The last El Niño event, which lasted from 2023 into 2024, coincided with what NOAA later identified as the hottest year ever recorded globally.

While El Niño was not the sole cause, scientists say the climate pattern amplified already rising temperatures driven by climate change.

NBC News senior meteorologist Kathryn Prociv warned that warmer global conditions increase the risk of severe weather disasters.

“A warmer globe means extreme weather events,” Prociv explained. “That can influence hurricanes, heat waves, potential flood patterns and more.”

Climate researchers say higher ocean temperatures can inject additional energy into the atmosphere, intensifying storms and increasing rainfall potential in some regions while worsening droughts in others.

West Coast and Hawaii Could Face Major El Niño Impacts

Historically, the U.S. West Coast and Hawaii often experience some of the strongest El Niño effects.

Meteorologists say Pacific hurricane activity could increase significantly if the event strengthens further.

Prociv noted that “alarm bells are going off already for Hawaii” because El Niño conditions can create a more active Pacific storm season.

The last major El Niño produced unusual weather events across the western United States, including Hurricane Hilary, which brought tropical storm conditions and historic flooding to parts of California, Arizona, Nevada, and Utah.

The storm prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a rare tropical storm warning for Southern California.

“It caused all the record-setting flooding and tropical moisture in areas that don’t typically see that amount of rain in a year,” Prociv said.

Extreme Heat Could Intensify Nationwide Risk of El Niño

Experts also warn that El Niño may contribute to dangerous summer heat across much of the United States.

“The summer heat waves will likely be extreme,” Prociv said, noting that El Niño combined with ongoing climate warming could push temperatures even higher.

Some forecasters believe either 2026 or 2027 could challenge global heat records if ocean temperatures continue climbing.

Extreme heat events can increase wildfire danger, strain electrical grids, worsen drought conditions, and create health risks for vulnerable populations.

Information about heat preparedness can be found through the National Weather Service.

Atlantic Hurricane Season May Become Less Active

Interestingly, El Niño often suppresses hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean by increasing upper-level wind shear that disrupts storm formation.

NOAA recently projected a 55% chance of a below-average Atlantic hurricane season.

Forecasters predict between eight and 14 named storms, with three to six becoming hurricanes and one to three reaching major hurricane strength.

However, experts caution that fewer storms does not necessarily mean lower danger.

Roker pointed to Hurricane Idalia, which struck Florida as a devastating Category 3 storm during the previous El Niño cycle.

“You only need one to be catastrophic,” Roker warned.

El Niño Expected Across the South

El Niño can also energize the subtropical jet stream, which acts like a corridor for storm systems across the southern United States.

That means states along the Gulf Coast and Deep South could experience wetter and stormier conditions during the fall and winter months.

Florida may especially see increased rainfall and severe weather outbreaks even if hurricane numbers decline overall.

“For Florida, it is in the climatological record that you tend to see more storms and severe weather during El Niño years,” Prociv explained.

Forecasters say the Gulf Coast region should closely monitor flooding risks if the pattern strengthens further.

Despite growing confidence that El Niño conditions are developing, meteorologists caution that no two El Niño events are alike.