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Once a modest waypoint for early long-distance aviation, Dubai has evolved into a central force in global air travel. In the early days, it served as a dusty refueling stop for flying boats traveling between the United Kingdom and far-reaching parts of the British Empire, including India and Australia. By the 1960s, its role remained limited, with a basic desert runway accommodating aircraft en route to more distant destinations.

Today, however, Dubai stands as a cornerstone of international aviation. In 2024, Dubai International Airport (DXB) processed more than 92 million passengers, surpassing all other airports worldwide in international traffic. By comparison, London Heathrow handled just under 83 million travelers. Nearby hubs in Abu Dhabi and Doha, while slightly smaller, together accounted for approximately 87 million passengers.

Under typical conditions, these Gulf hubs collectively manage over 3,000 daily flights, many operated by regional giants Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Qatar Airways.

That system has been severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Airspace closures across the region have halted traffic along some of the world’s busiest routes, grounding aircraft and stranding hundreds of thousands of passengers. Though some operations have resumed, significant disruption persists.

Fuel supplies have also become a pressing issue. With Iran effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for energy exports, jet fuel shipments from the Gulf — which usually account for roughly half of Europe’s imports — have been constrained. Prices have surged to double their pre-conflict levels, forcing some airlines to reduce services.

While these immediate challenges dominate industry concerns, analysts warn of deeper, longer-term consequences. Central among them is the potential impact on the Gulf’s highly successful aviation model, which has reshaped long-haul travel and reduced fares worldwide. The stakes are high not only for airlines but also for regional economies that depend heavily on connectivity.

Air Travel Grinds to a Halt

Operations at Gulf airports, typically known for efficiency, were thrown into disarray following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. Airspace closures forced widespread cancellations, and aircraft already in flight were diverted or turned back.

Tens of thousands of passengers found themselves stranded in transit hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha. Many had been connecting between flights and were left in limbo. At the same time, retaliatory drone and missile attacks targeting the United Arab Emirates and Qatar created an atmosphere of uncertainty and fear.

Travelers worldwide also felt the ripple effects, as flights routed through the Gulf were canceled, leaving passengers scrambling for alternatives.

Within days, Emirates and Etihad began limited repatriation flights, followed shortly by Qatar Airways. International carriers and governments, including the United Kingdom, also arranged evacuation services.

Although operations have since partially stabilized, schedules remain constrained. Aviation data firm Cirium reports that more than 30,000 flights to the Middle East have been canceled since the conflict began.

Frustration has been widely shared by affected passengers. Ian Scott, traveling from Melbourne to Venice via Doha, described how his onward flight was forced to return mid-journey. He spent several days in a hotel before embarking on a two-day drive through the desert to Oman, where he eventually secured a flight out.

He now says that in future, he would avoid flying via the Gulf hubs, even once hostilities have ceased – because he has "no faith" the region's troubles would end there.

A Model Built on Geography and Scale

Traveler sentiment like Scott’s is a growing concern for Gulf aviation leaders. Despite Dubai’s emergence as a destination in its own right, a large share of passengers passing through Gulf hubs are in transit. According to aviation analytics firm OAG, 47% of Dubai’s passengers in 2024 were connecting, compared with 54% in Abu Dhabi and 74% in Doha.

This reliance on transfer traffic underpins the Gulf aviation model. Airlines funnel passengers from cities worldwide into their hubs, coordinating tightly scheduled connections that enable efficient onward travel to distant destinations. The system allows journeys such as Boston to Bali or Amsterdam to Antananarivo with a single stop.

Unlike traditional hub-and-spoke networks, which rely on regional feeder flights, or point-to-point services between smaller cities, the Gulf model blends convenience with operational efficiency. Its success is closely tied to the region’s geographic position.

"Within three hours flying time of the Gulf, you have the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent, verging on China. It's a huge market," explains James Hogan, a former chief executive of Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways.

"The Gulf carriers were able to build a very strong network, not only of hub cities, capital cities – but also the major secondary cities and third cities, which enabled one-stop flying," he says.

Andrew Charlton, managing director of Aviation Advocacy, highlights the same advantage: "The Gulf is just in that place where, with the current technology, you can get to practically anywhere on Earth."

This positioning allowed Gulf airlines to capitalize on rapid growth in Asia, particularly in China and India, at a time when Western carriers were slower to respond.

"The Middle East was suddenly in exactly the right place for the emerging market, which was well east of the Atlantic," he says.

The carriers also benefited from modern fleets tailored to long-haul operations. Aircraft such as the Boeing 777 and Airbus A380 enabled high-capacity, long-distance travel, particularly on congested routes.

"The major differentiator was starting with a clean sheet of paper. That was the secret sauce," explains Mr Hogan. "You were able to create a service proposition that couldn't be matched by carriers in more traditional markets, whether that be the USA, Europe or Australasia."

Over time, this approach transformed the Gulf into a critical junction for global travel. John Grant of OAG describes it as a highly efficient system, with waves of arrivals and departures enabling rapid transfers.

"It is the pivot point for passengers that arrive from Europe and North America… who are scheduled to connect onwards on another flight to Australia, South East Asia, Singapore, Hong Kong or the Indian subcontinent," he says.

"It is a hugely efficient, very effective operation that sees 90-100 flights arriving in a one-hour time window and then departing somewhere else an hour or two later."

This expansion also drove down ticket prices worldwide.

"Competition drove down prices, and the Gulf carriers were a competitive game changer," says Mr Charlton. "They added capacity to long-haul markets, they created long-haul markets… so of course they drove airfares down."

Uncertain Future for the Gulf Aviation Model

The current conflict has disrupted this system, raising questions about its long-term viability. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen of the Baker Institute warns that prolonged instability could undermine traveler confidence.

"Of course the business model is going to be called into question the longer it goes on," he says. "If people don't feel secure about travelling because they feel they'll get stuck, or that at any time the airport might be closed because of a drone, even if it's intercepted, that will do a lot of damage."

A key concern is whether passengers will begin avoiding Gulf hubs altogether. If the conflict is short-lived, Charlton believes recovery could be swift, driven by lower fares.

But if disruption persists, he warns, travelers may shift to alternative routes through hubs such as Singapore, Bangkok, Hong Kong, or Tokyo.

At the same time, reduced capacity from Gulf carriers would likely push fares higher.

"Did the Gulf carriers cause lower fares? Yes they did. Take Gulf carriers out of the equation, air fares are going to go up, as sure as eggs are eggs."

European airlines have already adjusted, adding direct services to Asia that bypass the Gulf. British Airways has increased flights to Bangkok and Singapore, while Lufthansa and Air France-KLM have expanded their own routes.

However, Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, cautions that European carriers cannot fully compensate for the Gulf’s capacity, which accounts for nearly 10% of global supply.

Speaking in Paris, he said "there is no way the capacity provided by carriers in the Gulf can be replaced by European carriers", though he expressed confidence in a recovery once hostilities subside.

High Stakes Beyond Aviation

Questions about the Gulf aviation model are not new. During the Covid-19 pandemic, some analysts doubted the resilience of long-haul, transit-focused carriers. Yet the sector rebounded quickly, with strong financial results in recent years.

"The aviation industry has seen Sars, it's seen Covid, it's seen geopolitical events in various parts of the world," says Grant. "It's seen stock market crashes, and it bounces back."

Still, the current crisis carries broader economic implications. Gulf states, particularly the United Arab Emirates, have invested heavily in diversifying their economies beyond oil and gas, with aviation playing a central role.

"With the ability to create aviation hubs, there was a major move in that diversification, because of the catalytic effect of aviation," Hogan says.

Ulrichsen adds that Dubai’s global appeal as a place to live and do business is closely tied to its connectivity.

That progress could be at risk if air travel does not rebound quickly. Tourism, in particular, is vulnerable.

"My intuition is this will have a lasting impact… because of the safety perception you have in your mind," says Johannes Thomas, chief executive of Trivago, who estimates recovery could take "maybe two to three years."

Hogan, however, remains confident.

"This is a major crisis, but it will be resolved at a point in time," he says. "I've seen it over the years. Some people in the early days may be apprehensive, but travellers will come back.

"I'm very bullish about what the Gulf has to offer."

For now, the conflict has dealt a significant blow to Gulf aviation, shaking confidence among travelers and disrupting a system that underpins global connectivity. Whether the region can quickly restore its role as a central hub will determine not only its own fortunes, but also the future shape of long-haul air travel worldwide.