Market Reaction: A Sharp Jolt
Investors reacted swiftly. Glencore shares tumbled as much as 10% in late-afternoon trading in London before closing down 7% at £4.75. Rio Tinto’s London-listed stock was comparatively steady, slipping about 2.6% to £68.26.
The companies had publicly confirmed merger discussions in early January and faced a Feb. 5 “put up or shut up” deadline — the point by which Rio needed to make a firm offer or walk away unless both sides agreed to extend negotiations. With talks now terminated, they are barred from revisiting a merger for six months.
Still, people close to the discussions did not entirely dismiss the possibility of renewed talks after a cooling-off period. In mining, as in geology, pressure can reshape outcomes over time.
Copper at the Center of the Storm
The collapse marks another failed megamerger in the mining sector, following BHP’s unsuccessful attempts to acquire Anglo American.
At the heart of the drama lies copper — the red metal increasingly viewed as the bloodstream of electrification and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Mining groups are racing to secure new supply as demand accelerates.
Glencore, the world’s sixth-largest copper producer, announced in December a strategic pivot to focus more heavily on copper, aiming ultimately to become the world’s top producer.
Rio Tinto, whose profits are still dominated by iron ore, has been working to expand its copper portfolio through projects including the Resolution Mine in Arizona.
“A deal of this size, and with the egos involved, was always going to be a significant challenge,” said Ben Davis, an analyst at RBC. “We are surprised it was revisited so quickly — clearly something had brought the two back together, and it is unclear what has driven them apart again.”
For now, the dream of a mining colossus straddling iron ore, copper and global commodity flows has fractured. In a sector defined by scale and ambition, Rio Tinto and Glencore’s aborted union underscores a simple truth: even giants can fail to align when value — and control — are on the line.
