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America October 27, 2022 2 mins read

The Fed Is Unlikely To Pivot From Its Path Of Interest Rates Until The End of 2022, Says JPMorgan Strategist Julia Wang

America ı By Rochdi Rais

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JPMorgan Chase

The Fed won't draw back from its path of interest rate hikes until the end of next year as inflation continue and the economy isn't slowing as expected, according to JPMorgan strategist Julia Wang.

That's contrary to the expectations of many analysts, who have warned this year that the Fed may be forced to pivot in order to avoid a recession. Despite inflation blasting in above expectations in September, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel noted that inflation was likely being overstated in the official statistics, and some sectors of the economy, like housing, have been deteriorating in response to rising interest rates.

But a pivoting is unlikely in the near term, given the, Wang said in an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday. 

"The weakness in the economy isn't really as big or coming as fast as people have expected. I think a lot of indicators on the consumer side actually are still pretty resilient," she said, pointing to the recent upside in GDP numbers, which clocked in above expectations on Thursday. 

The labor market also remains hot, another factor that's influencing the Fed's outlook on rate increases. While job openings have declined slightly, the unemployment rate inched lower in September and hiring is still robust. That will likely encourage the Fed to keep tightening until the labor market shows more signs of slowing down, Bank of America analysts said.

"For us to get to a point where labor market conditions are more fundamentally consistent with the Fed's inflation target, we think will probably take us to end of next year. So hence, that's why we expect a pivot really only in Q4 2023," Wang added.

 

 

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Rochdi Rais

Rochdi Rais is the Fractional Head of Growth and financial and legal writer at USA Herald. He has been writing and editing financial, legal and U.S. news for years with over +4000 articles published during his career.

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