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As the conflict in the Middle East enters its second month, disrupting global energy markets and pushing oil prices higher, China is attempting to assert itself as a mediator.

The effort comes while President Donald Trump has suggested U.S. military action in Iran could conclude in “two to three weeks,” though details on how that would unfold remain unclear.

China joins Pakistan, which has emerged as an unexpected intermediary in the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. Officials in Beijing and Islamabad unveiled a five-point proposal aimed at halting hostilities and reopening the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistan, historically a U.S. ally, appears to have gained Trump’s approval to facilitate talks.

China, however, is entering the arena as a rival to Washington, ahead of pivotal trade discussions between Xi Jinping and Trump next month.

“Morally, politically and diplomatically, China is providing comprehensive support with the hope that Pakistan can play a more distinctive role,” said Zhu Yongbiao, Middle East expert and director of the Centre for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University. “China’s backing on this is very important.”

This marks a shift for Beijing, which initially offered a muted response to the war. The move comes after Pakistan’s foreign minister visited China to seek support for mediating the conflict.

The visit appears to have yielded results. China’s Foreign Ministry said the two nations were making “new efforts towards advocating for peace,” with a joint statement emphasizing dialogue and diplomacy as “the only viable option to resolve conflicts” and calling for protection of waterways, including the blockaded strait.

While oil is a concern, it is not the only factor. As the world’s largest crude importer, China has stockpiles sufficient to last for months. Still, Xi Jinping likely sees the conflict as a threat to economic stability.

“If the rest of the world begins to slow down economically because of an energy shock, that’s going to be tough for China’s factories and exporters,” said Matt Pottinger, chairman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracy’s China Program. “That’s why I think when I see China’s foreign minister just this week advising Iran that we need to find a way to end this war, I think there’s some sincerity there. I think that Beijing is a little bit worried about where this could lead if it turns into a real energy shock that is protracted.”

Concerns extend to China’s industrial hubs, which serve as the world’s manufacturing backbone. Rising oil costs could ripple through supply chains, affecting everything from plastics and synthetic fabrics to components for phones, electric cars, and semiconductors.

During Trump’s first-term trade war with China, many U.S. businesses sought new markets abroad. As a result, China’s exports to the Middle East grew nearly twice as fast as exports to other regions last year. The region has become the fastest-growing market for electric vehicles, and China is the largest investor in Middle Eastern desalination projects, crucial in water-scarce countries.

The Power Construction Corporation of China operates projects in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Iraq.

China’s economic connections have fostered relationships with both U.S. allies and regional adversaries. Tehran and Beijing have maintained decades-long ties, with China purchasing roughly 80% of Iranian oil.

Beijing has previously sought to mediate in the Middle East, with mixed results. In 2023, China brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, long-time adversaries in regional proxy wars. After years of severed ties, the nations re-established diplomatic relations, partly to reduce the likelihood of regional conflict.

A year later, China hosted leaders of 14 Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Hamas, resulting in a declaration for a national unity government in the West Bank and Gaza. While symbolic, the talks highlighted China’s role and interest in regional stability.

China’s partnerships are primarily economic, without security guarantees or military backing. “China is cautious about being drawn into broader conflicts,” Zhu said. “Its priority, both domestically and in foreign policy, is economic development. There is a broad consensus that China shouldn’t recklessly get involved in a war.”

China’s military reach in the Middle East is limited. The U.S. maintains bases across Gulf states, while China’s only nearby base, in Djibouti, serves mainly as a logistics hub for anti-piracy missions. During the 2025 Israel-Iran war, Beijing remained on the sidelines, illustrating the limits of its influence.

The new peace proposal has yet to receive responses from either Washington or Tehran, but it positions Xi as a neutral broker, contrasting with the U.S.

Beijing’s claim to international pragmatism comes with caveats. Its alignment with Russia raises doubts about neutrality, while actions in Hong Kong and threats against Taiwan cast further uncertainty. China’s leadership also avoids addressing human rights abuses abroad, making Xi an unlikely advocate for a global rules-based order.

Still, China remains a significant global actor driven by strategic interests, demonstrating influence in the Middle East and signaling ambitions to expand that role in the future.