Ukraine’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko described the shutdown as a pivotal event, asserting, “Russia is losing markets, it will suffer financial losses.”
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Europe’s Shift Away from Russian Gas
European nations have significantly reduced reliance on Russian gas since the war began. Russia’s share of EU gas imports fell from 45% pre-war to 15% in 2023. The Ukrainian transit route accounted for only 5% of the EU’s total imports by its expiration.
Efforts to diversify suppliers have included building LNG terminals and securing deals with countries like the U.S., Norway, Qatar, Azerbaijan, and Algeria. Norway emerged as the EU’s top supplier in 2023, providing 30% of imports, followed by the U.S. at 19%.
Economic and Political Implications
Ending the transit deal may cost Russia up to $6.5 billion annually, a smaller financial impact compared to earlier disruptions. Ukraine also loses approximately $1 billion in transit fees.
