However, Langbroek added that, given the planet’s geography, “chances are good it will indeed end up in some ocean.”
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Could Kosmos 482 Survive Reentry?
The most concerning component is the landing capsule, a 3-foot-wide sphere weighing more than 1,000 pounds (nearly 500 kilograms).
This part was designed to withstand a descent through Venus’ thick carbon dioxide atmosphere, increasing the likelihood it could also survive Earth’s atmospheric entry.
British-American astronomer Jonathan McDowell warned in a blog post:
“The unit might well survive Earth atmosphere entry and hit the ground. In which case, I expect it’ll have the usual one-in-several-thousand chance of hitting someone.”
Langbroek agreed that “the risk is similar to that of a random meteorite fall, several of which happen each year.” He added, “You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime.”
What Happens If It Doesn’t Burn Up?
Experts are uncertain about the condition of the parachute system and heat shield after over 50 years in space. If the heat shield fails, the spacecraft could burn up on reentry, posing minimal threat.
