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And More November 3, 2022 2 mins read

The Fed Could Let Economic Slowdown Until Around 2025, Says Morgan Stanley’s Global Chief Economist

And More ı By Rochdi Rais

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Jerome Powell Chair of The Federal Reserve of the United States

The Federal Reserve could protract any economic slowdown until around 2025, if forced to, in its efforts to tame inflation down to its 2% target level, according to Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's global chief economist.

Carpenter said Thursday that the US central bank's pivot towards more gradual tightening could mean it now favors curbing exorbitant prices over a more extended period of time, rather than doing so by triggering a short but dramatic recession.

"They said that they want to tighten policy, to be restrictive so that inflation gets back to target, but then they said 'over time' and I think it's fair to ask what does that mean," he told CNBC's 'Halftime Report'. "The last time they did their projections, 'over time' meant at least three years for inflation to get back to their target."

"They're serious about bringing inflation down, but I also think they're trying to be clear that they're not trying to crash things so that everything comes down next year," Carpenter added. "They want to squeeze things enough so that we get the slowdown, but then they're willing to let that slowdown happen over a long period of time."

The Fed has hiked interest rates by 300 basis points during its last four meetings in a bid to bring down soaring prices – but inflation has stood stubbornly high, hitting 8.2% in September.

At his latest press conference earlier this week, chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank would now shift to a 'slower for longer' approach to rate hikes.

"It will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases as we approach the level of interest rates that will be sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to our 2% goal," he said.

That suggests it'll go for a 50 basis point rate hike at its next meeting in September, according to Carpenter. 

"Our baseline view is 50, but that baseline view is very much dependent on the data we get [on Friday]," Carpenter said. Morgan Stanley is expecting the US to have added around 180,000 jobs in October.

"We'll get another one before December, if that's another step down then I think we'll get 50 basis points," he added. "That will tell them we are seeing some slowing."

 

 

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Rochdi Rais

Rochdi Rais is the Head of Growth and financial and legal writer at USA Herald. He has been writing and editing financial, legal and U.S. news for years with over +4000 articles published during his career.

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